Jobless Claims Unchanged From Last Week; Trend Worsens

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

Unchanged: 374,000.

It will be interesting to see the spin this time. I haven't seen the written report yet, just the CNBC crawler (yes, I am watching CNBC for a few minutes this a.m.).

With jobless claims increasing the past few weeks, pundits said the silver lining was that the four-week moving average, a better indicator, was improving. It appears that the four-week moving average has increased by a teensie-weensie amount, about 1,500. Insignificant. But the wrong direction.

So, we will wait for the spin.

The spin

From Reuters, the lede:

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits was unchanged last week, pointing to a labor market that was treading water. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were a seasonally adjusted 374,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.  

The prior week's figure was revised up to show 2,000 more applications than previously reported.

And, again, the prior week's figure was revised up to show 2,000 more than previously reported. Had the prior week not been revised upward (it was already up from the prior week), this week would have also shown a rise. Amazing how they can massage these figures and these headlines.

The article goes on to say that economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dipping to 370,000, and noted that "the average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, rose 1,500 to 370,250.  The comment that usually follows was not there; the silence is deafening. I would assume the writer did not want to re-emphasize that the "better measure of labor market trends" was going in the wrong direction. Smile.

The fact they can get these stories written and posted within minutes of the announcement suggests they have the story written with blanks to be filled in before the numbers are announced, thus explaining the headline and even some of the jargon that may not mesh with the released numbers.

According to Reuters, jobless claims have risen by 10,000 in August, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth this month after payrolls increased 163,000 in July from 64,000 in June (summer hiring which will go away in September when folks return to school).

The report did not say anything about the automobile summer vacation schedules affecting this week's number.