Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Four New Permits, Three Permits Canceled -- August 12, 2026

Locator: 51394B.

Our internet seems to be back to normal. 

Ukraine / Russian war: seems to be getting worse. Now Putin threatens to seize EU ships; this is his opening to see EU's resolve.

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Back to the Bakken  

WTI: $82.71. It certainly appears that, at least for oil, the Strait of Homuz, is irrelevant, at least for the short term. 

Active rigs: 29.

Four new permits, #43205 - #43208, inclusive --

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Bennett Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: 
    • Kraken has permits for four Mercury wells, SWSE 32-147-99, 
      • to be sited 410 FSL and 1321 / 1420 FEL. 

Three permits canceled:

  • XTO: three Predator Federal permits, Dunn County, canceled.

 

Midday -- August 12, 2026

 Locator: 51392OUTAGE.

Updates

Later, 3:28 pm. CT: CSCO is now down 3% after the close suggesting earnings are out. CSCO soundly beat on top and bottom lines. Nonetheless, CSCO fell below its close for the day. All one can do, is bank on the 30-year horizon. After hours, closed down about 4%. 

Later, 3:26 p.m. CT: Cerebras had an incredible quarter an even greater guidance, and yet the stock plunged 14% after the close.  

Later, 3:20 p.m. CT: AI continues to gobsmack the naysayers. CoreWeave gained 19% today and now we see Nebius gains 34% after earnings reported, after a post-earnings neocloud rally.

Later, 3:18 p.m. CT: our Spectrum outage continues. Very aggravating. CSCO had a good day, closing up about 3% but earnings have not yet been reported, at least, based on on-line sources. I am still blogging from the library, reading Edith Wharton's A Backward Glance, while waiting for CSCO's earnings. 

Original Post 

Note: it appears we have a pretty severe Spectrum outage in our neck of the woods, as they say. I have no idea how long this will last. I'm currently blogging at the library but will be leaving soon. As soon as the Spectrum outage is resolved, I will post a note.  

The only thing left on my blogging agenda today: CISCO earnings after the close. The NDIC daily activity report can wait, if need be. 

Tag: IEA's annual global oil demand revisions. Much could be said but I've beaten this dead horse. It is what it is.  

We posted the numbers yesterday, but today we have the graph .... much more dramatic!

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Disclaimer

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here 
  • ***********************************
    The Book Page

    Some cryptic notes.

    A Backward Glance, Edith Wharton. Born 1862, died 1937. Almost an exact contemporary of her favorite friend. Extremely wealthy but I don't recognize names like the Astors. See below. 

    Close friend, Mrs Elizabeth Astor Winthrop Chanler, born 1866, died 1937. Not all that old at death (71) but saw a lot. Missed the US Civil War by a few years but saw wars up through World War I. Incredible family history. 

    The Astor family.  

    George Templeton Strong. Diarist. Born 1820; died 1875, only 55 years old. His 2,250-page diary discovered in the 1930. Perhaps "the northern equivalent of South Carolina's Mary Chesnut," which I am familiar having read parts of it. 

    Diaries in general, no matter how good, are generally boring; too much mundane material. Anaïs Nin is perhaps the exception, along with maybe Virginia Woolf.  If memoirs and a diary are different, and I don't know if they are, memoirs that I have read (very few) are very good. 

    Paul Bourget, born 1852, died, 1935, very close in years to the year both Chanler and Wharton died. A novelist, born in France. Nominated for the Nobel Prize in literature five times. His "studies," or his novels would have fascinated Edith Wharton. 

    Close friend of Henry James, born 1843, died 1916, age 72. Almost 20 years older than Edith.

    It is on days like this, when the internet is down, that I sometimes wish I had not quit reading when I did and sold my soul to Spectrum.  

    A passing nod to Anthony Trollope, 1815 - 1882, at age 67. Forty-seven (47) novels, including two series of six novels each.

    Edith only really began writing after the age of 40.

    Louis Auchincloss, followed in the footsteps of Henry James and Edith Wharton. Born, 1917; died 1910, age 92.

    In his adult life, Auchincloss was a registered Republican. However, he voted for Democrat Bill Clinton explaining, "I think we're moving dangerously into a have and have not situation ... for the first time in 150 years the rich are sneering at the poor." Auchincloss described the Bush family as "a big family of shits." He explained his decision to receive the National Medal of the Arts from President George W. Bush, saying, "I didn't accept a prize from George W. Bush, I accepted a prize from the President of the United States. Who am I to turn that down?"  

    Having noted that, it must be remembered the wider Auchincloss family was closely related to the Bouviers and thus intimately involved with the JFK circle. 

    In Wharton's last 24 years of life, she never returned to the states, but yet felt compelled to write about NYC. Her later writings, obviously, were a bit obscured by the fog or the clouds.  

    Mamaroneck -- p. 4, in A Backward Glance

    How ironic. The new HBO series, "The Gilded Age" is now being marketed as the series to watch. Recommend one query: this would have been the age for which Edith Wharton is famous. Does the movie follow her or her "crowd"? The answer is amazing. 

    The Dow Is Green, NASDAQ Surges, And BRKB Has Another Down Day -- August 12, 2026

     Locator: 51391INVESTING.


     

    *********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here 
  • Chart Of The Year --- Lumentum -- Up 630% In The Past Year -- August 12, 2026

    Locator: 51390INVESTING.


     At the open:


    Meanwhile:  as predicted -- flight to safety and a place to "park" money, but when the market is surging, BRK is sold and other assets bought.

    *********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here 
  • Part 2 -- August 12, 2026

    Locator: 51389ARCHIVES.
    Pageviews: running at 1.6 million views / 24 hours. 

    Global oil demand: remember when it couldn't get past 99 million bbls /day. 

    Now we have huge amounts of oil being trapped inside the strait, and China holding back huge amounts of oil imports. We are seeing huge amounts of demand destruction for oil. Every August, the IEA revies global oil demand. Today's revision: global oil demand has risen to 104.8 million bbls/day, about 300K bbls/day higher than the last estimate. IEA still sees the market last year oversupplied, with supply running about 106.d million bbls /d vs demand of 104.8. 

    Zero-day options: it's simply a bet on the red/green for a particular stock for the day. And that option action is increasing.  

    Anticipation


    CRWV: surging overnight and holding that surge overnight -- up 18% right now. 

    Foxconn: beats; huge profit jump; about 35%.  

    Norway: nation's wealth fund posts record $184 billion; reveals SpaceX stake for first time. Norway's sovereign wealth fund is world's largest such fund. 

    Mideast: Houthis are becoming increasingly active. This seems to suggest the Iranians are becoming more desperate by the day. The fact President Trump is so sanguine with regard to the war, he knows what is going on. More cargo ships targeted; more deaths. Trump seems uninterested. Mideast turning to pipelines. 

    Allies to cut Iran out of global oil. By Simon Watkins -- so you know it's accurate and it's good. Link here

    K-Cups: it appears K-cups have increased in price significantly and, at least on Amazon, Bustello has dialed back its promotions. Where in the past, K-cups less than $0.60/cup were easy to find, it's becoming more and more standard for K-cups costing more than $1.10 / cup. 

    Eggs: link here. Back to 2008 prices.

    US savings rate: approaching its 10-year low, and the trend has been down for quite some time. Is the personal savings rate a leading indicator. Link here.