Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Richard Zeits Over At SeekingAlpha: Recent Million-Bbl EOG Wells May Re-Ignite Western Eagle Ford

Over at Seeking Alpha:
One of the most notable positive surprises during this earnings season in the Exploration and Production sector was the announcement by EOG Resources of uncharacteristically strong well results in the western portion of the Eagle Ford Shale play.
Very high oil productivity of certain areas in the eastern portion of the Eagle Ford has been widely publicized and confirmed by many "monster" well results, with some of the IPs exceeding 5,000 barrels of oil per day, plus significant amounts of associated liquids-rich gas. Those wells have largely defined the play's "core of the core" as a narrow band along the volatile oil and condensate windows, mostly in Gonzales and Karnes Counties (picture below). The western half of the play on the other hand, has lagged substantially in terms of well results, challenging operators to make competitive returns on their projects. Royal Dutch Shell, for example, has recently made a decision to divest its enviable 100,000+ net acre block in western Eagle Ford after drilling over a hundred wells with somewhat disappointing results.
But now EOG is reporting staggering results in the western portion. See more at the link.

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A Note To The Granddaughters

Earlier this morning I posted a noted about safety issues of a nuclear reactor from Freeman Dyson's Disturbing the Universe.

Now this little bit of trivia from the same book p. 99:
There were many practical difficulties to be overcome before these [safety] ideas could be embodied in functining hardward. The greatest contribution to overcoming the practical difficulties was made by Massoud Simnad, an Iranian metallurgist who discovered how to make fuel rods containing high concentrations of hydrogen. He made the rods out of an alloy of uranium hydride with zirconium hydride. He  found the right proportins of these ingredients to mix together and the right way to cook them. When the fuel rods emerged from Massoud's oven, they looked like black, hard, shiny metal, as tough and as corrosion-rssistant as good stainless steel.
So, the Iranians have a long history of working with nuclear reactors. Fascinating.

Doomsday: US Cities


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San Bernardino, CA: filed for bankruptcy earlier this year (2015); now has a $1 million must-pay bill it can't afford. Asking for help.
Officials in San Bernardino, which has been struggling to recover from bankruptcy over the last three years, are hopeful that added costs from its response to the deadliest terrorist attack on U.S. soil since 9/11 will not further erode the city's delicate finances.
The city has incurred up to $1 million in unforeseen expenses — from the added cost of deploying police officers on extended shifts to responding to ultimately unfounded reports of new threats.
Houston, TX: first time Houston is on the list? Pensions.

Baltimore, MD: the city records its 300th homicide victim, just months after calling in the Feds to help. 

Ferguson, MO: facing insolvency (predicted, see below, scroll down);  September 21, 2015
Ferguson could become insolvent by the 2017 fiscal year, the credit-rating company said. The rating cut reflects “severe and rapid deterioration of the city’s financial position, possible depletion of fund balances in the near term, and limited options for restoring fiscal stability,” Moody’s said.
Chicago: Emanuel set to call for highest property tax raise in history to pay for police/fire pensions; will start charging $10 - $12 for garbage pick-up; will add $1 or so for taxi rides. September 3, 2015. Update: specifics spelled out. September 21, 2015.

Chicago: public school system in trouble; 1,400 jobs cut; June 30, 2015. 

San Bernardino, CA: special report, Los Angeles Times, sad, sad story. It begins:  San Bernardino, once a sturdy, middle class "All-America City," is now bankrupt, the poorest city of its size in California, and a symbol of the nation's worst urban woes.
Of the 100 biggest cities in the U.S., San Bernardino, 60 miles east of Los Angeles, was ranked the second-poorest in the nation in the 2010 census, behind Detroit. Two years later it filed for bankruptcy. Last month the City Council approved a 77-page plan that it hopes will move the city toward solvency, in part by making residents pay higher taxes and fees while further cutting their services.
San Bernardino, CA: CalPERs wins; city loses; still hasn't filed final bankruptcy plan, May 12, 2015. 

Atlantic City, NJ: six notches deeper into junk territory, January 13, 2015.

Chicago, IL: Moody's drops Chicago's credit rating to "junk" status, May 12, 2015


Milwaukee, WI: violence spiraling out of control, May 7, 2015.

Stockton, CA: coming out of bankruptcy, March 17, 2015.

San Bernardino, CA: update on bankruptcy, March 17, 2015.

Ferguson, MO: unable to prove the white cop on black killing was racially motivated, Attorney General will bankrupt the city, threatening to dismantle the police department.

Chicago, IL: downgraded. Bonds just two steps above junk status. February 27, 2015.

Detroit, MI: entire power grid goes down. December 2, 2014. No explanation. 

Stockton, CA: a federal judge rules that public sector pensions are not protected when a city declares bankruptcy. October 1, 2014.

Atlantic City, NJ: Moody's cuts credit rating two steps to junk for Atlantic City -- July 24, 2014. First mentioned (in passing) back in December, 2013.

Long Beach, CA: Boeing to shut down C-17 plant three months early. About 2,000 workers support the C-17 program in California. First time Long Beach makes the Doomsday: Cities list.

NYC, NY: Municipal health care system budget deficit will more than triple to $1.4 billion in four years. February 25, 2014.

Chicago, IL: Chicago workers protest as pension crisis brews. After years of avoiding the issue, the city of Chicago is facing a massive spike in its annual bill for the pensions it promised current and retired workers. Next year, the city's required contribution will more than double to $1.07 billion. February 19, 2014.

Top ten cities with highest tax rates. USA Today is reporting: #1 (worst), Wilmington, DE; Detroit, MI; Louisville, KY; Portland, ME; Providence, RI; Columbus, OH; Baltimore, MD; Milwaukee, WI; Philadelphia, PA; #10, Bridgeport, CT. I find it interesting the cities in most financial trouble have highest tax rates. February 15, 2014.

Chicago, IL: one day closer to junk. Mayor Rahm Emanuel's administration is making preparations to issue up to $900 million in bonds this year to lower some of its borrowing costs, push other debt off into the future at an overall higher cost, cover legal settlements and pay for construction, building maintenance and equipment. February 3, 2014. 

New York City, NY: new mayor. Listen to the folks he picked to introduce him at the inauguration. This is why he limited attendance by reporters. January 1, 2014. 

Chicago, IL: day of reckoning. Long story in Financial Times
Morgan was one of about 50 elementary schools forced to close this year, collateral damage from the ballooning pension crises in Chicago and the state of Illinois. The budget gap in Chicago’s school district alone is $1bn, mainly because of pension liabilities, while the combined unfunded pension liabilities of the city and the school district runs to over $27bn.
Rahm Emanuel, Chicago’s Democratic mayor, has said the school closures – along with 3,000 job cuts in the school system – were necessary to close the yawning hole in the district budget. The episode has further soured the mayor’s relations with the teachers union, which held a seven-day strike last year. Karen Lewis, head of the union, called the school closures “racist” and “classist.”
Atlantic City, Las Vegas: could these two cities be the next Detroit? Casinos are closing in Atlantic City; real estate remains depressed in Las Vegas; and casinos are opening up across the United States (December 21, 2013).  
As of 2013, racinos are legal in ten states: Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia (racinos are "slot machines at old horse-racing and dog-racing tracks).

Tracks like Delaware Park and West Virginia's Mountaineer Park, once considered places where local degenerates bet on broken-down nags in claiming races, are now among the wealthiest tracks around, with the best races.
Detroit, MI: Detroit is eligible for bankruptcy -- judge

Detroit, MI: The Drudge Report links a story saying that "the Feds have started bailing out Detroit." In fact, it was a grant that the city applied for, competing with others; the money will go to the Detroit firefighters.  I think reading the entire story, and not just the DrudgeReport link will provide a better understanding of the issue. I have no problem with this. We probably spend this amount of money in Iraq and Afghanistan on a daily basis. Headlines like these tend to tarnish the "Drudge" image.

Desert Hot Springs, CA: the city votes to declare "a fiscal emergency" in one last big to avert bankruptcy, November 20, 2013. 

Desert Hot Springs, CA: A resort town in California warned on Tuesday that it will run out of money by March due to burdensome salary and pension costs and could join other U.S. cities that have recently filed for bankruptcy protection.
A bankruptcy filing by Desert Hot Springs, a city of 26,000 about 110 miles east of Los Angeles, would make it the third California city along with San Bernardino and Stockton to seek court protection from creditors.
San Bernardino and Detroit - the biggest U.S. city to seek Chapter 9 protection - are likely to set precedent on whether retirees or Wall Street bondholders suffer the most when a city goes broke.
The problems in Desert Hot Springs came to light last week when a new finance director reviewed the city's records and discovered a $3 million shortfall in its budget of $13.5 million. Amy Aguer, the interim director of finance, did not have details on how the shortfall occurred but said it was the result of higher-than-expected pension and salary costs, especially in the police department, and overly optimistic estimates of revenue. November 14, 2013.

Vern Whitten Photography

Vern Whitten Photography has sent some new photos. I certainly appreciate getting these.

Enjoy.

There are two sets of photos: a) energy; b) scenery.

In the energy portfolio, they are all incredible. I particularly enjoyed:
  • #7 (of 36)
  • #19 and #20 (0f 36) as pairs to hang on a wall.
  • #21, #22, and, #23: brand new trucks, probably made at the factory where one of my sons-in-law works
In the scenery photos: all incredible, but the aerial shots of the groundhogs -- priceless.

Just in time for Christmas gifts. I think a lot of roughnecks would love letting their parents in Texas or Louisiana or Idaho see what they are involved in, in the Bakken.



Vern Whitten Photography

Montana Update

Don sent me these. Thank you.

Richland county, four (4) Bakken well completions:
  •  CLR, Levengood 1-5H, TD 13,739 feet (short lateral), 282
  •  CLR, Reimann 3-23H, TD 19,963 feet (long lateral), 208
  • Whiting, Mullin 21-24-1H, TD 19,787 feet (long lateral), 452
  • Whiting, Weber 24-30-1H, TD 20,225 feet (long lateral), 1,106
Sheridan County, three (3) Bakken completions:
  • TAQA North, Jerde 10-1H, with two laterals, TD 11,610 feet (short lateral), and TD 7,850 (?), no IP
  • TAQA North, Jerde 10-1H-2, TD 12,274 feet (short lateral), 14 (no typo). 
  • TAQA North, Bolke 7-13, TD 12,319 feet (short lateral), 5 (no typo).
 Disclaimer: when I state there are no typos, I simply mean that I double-checked what I typed with what I saw from the original source. There could still be errors, and I could have other typos elsewhere. Check with original source if one has questions. These results would have come from The Fairfield SunTimes.

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To The Granddaughters

I continue to enjoy Freeman Dyson's Disturbing the Universe. Today's excerpt:
Nuclear reactors are controlled by long metal rods containing substances such as boron and cadmium, which absorb neutrons strongly. When you want to make the reactor run faster, you pull the control rods a little way out of the reactor core. When you want to shut the reactor down, you push the control rods all the way in.
The first rule in operating a reactor is that you don't suddenly yank the control rods out of a shut-down reactor. The result of suddenly pulling out the control rods would in most cases be a catastrophic accident, including as one of its minor consequences the death of the idiot who pulled the rods. All large reactors are therefore built with automatic control systems which make it impossible to pull the rods out suddenly. 
These reactors possess "engineered safety," which means that a catastrophic accident is theoretically possible but is prevented by the way the control system is designed. For Edward Teller, engineered safety was not good enough. He asked us to design a reactor with "inherent safety," meaning that its safety must be guaranteed by the laws of nature and not merely by the details of  its engineering.
It must be safe even in the hands of an idiot clever enough to by-pass the entire control system and blow out the control rods with dynamite. Stated more precisely, Teller's ground rule for the safe reactor was that if it was started from its shut-down condition and all its control rods instantaneously removed, it would settle down to a steady level of operation without melting any of its fuel.
"It must be safe even in the hands of an idiot clever enough to by-pass the entire control system and blow out the control rods with dynamite." And all I can think of is Homer Simpson.

Social Networking -- This Will Brighten Your Wednesday

My daughter knew how much I liked to review products over at Amazon.com. She suggested I read the comments for this product.

Active rigs: 181

RBN Energy: Part 2, the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale.
The potential for the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) tight-oil play to become the next big thing in U.S. oil production is attracting exploration and production companies willing to put some money at risk in the hope of big payoffs. The TMS seems to have a lot going for it. The play in central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi is said to have seven billion barrels of oil in place deep below ground but only a stone’s throw from the pipeline networks, terminals and refineries of the Gulf Coast. But succeeding in TMS requires overcoming the play’s challenging characteristics through nuanced drilling techniques and completion formulas. Today in the second part of our series on TMS we examine what the E&P pioneers have accomplished so far in drilling and production, what they’re learning from their experience, and what it would take to turn TMS’s potential into reality.
The Wall Street Journal

Previously posted in a shorter note last night:
The Canadian subsidiary of Chinese state-owned energy giant Cnooc Ltd.has been awarded exclusive rights to proceed with a proposed terminal to export liquefied natural gas from Canada's Pacific coast, local government and company officials said Tuesday.
Known as Aurora LNG, the project is one of nearly a dozen proposals for plants to export surplus natural gas from British Columbia, none of which have been formally approved yet by their corporate sponsors. In addition to Calgary-based Nexen Inc., a wholly owned unit of Cnooc, the project is also backed by two Japanese companies: oil explorer Inpex Corp. and construction engineering firm JGC Corp.
It comes as part of a move by Canada to transform its underdeveloped northern Pacific coast into a major hub for LNG by using a glut of natural gas from untapped reserves inland. The Canadian government has also been trying to shift gas exports away from the saturated U.S. market and into LNG-hungry Asian markets.
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Heard on the street -- Apple's Retina Mini available this week.
Living up to past glory is no easy task, especially if you are Apple. AAPL +0.19% Illustrating this was Tuesday's uncharacteristically quiet launch of the new iPad Mini with a Retina display.
Last year, Apple launched the first version of its smaller tablet to now-customary long lines of waiting fans, who snapped up more than three million units of the then-new, seven-inch iPads over the launch weekend. That was double the launch sales for the previous iPad release. Last year's figures also encompassed the launch of the iPad 4, although analysts believe the bulk of the sales were for the Mini.
It will be a challenge for Apple to make the same sorts of claims this year. The company has effectively staggered the launch of its new iPads, with the iPad Air hitting stores earlier this month and the Retina Mini delayed until now. That was reportedly due to production issues that have limited manufacturing capacity. Reflecting this, Apple confirmed Tuesday that the Retina Mini needs to be ordered online for customers who want to pick it up in stores.
I will be getting a new Apple iPad; can't decide between "full-size" and mini; most likely a mini.

Elsewhere

Now comes the hard part. Reuters is reporting:
The operator of Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant will as early as this week begin removing 400 tonnes of highly irradiated spent fuel in a hugely delicate and unprecedented operation fraught with risk.
Carefully plucking more than 1,500 brittle and potentially damaged fuel assemblies from the plant's unstable Reactor No. 4 is expected to take about a year, and will be seen as a test of Tokyo Electric Power Co's ability to move ahead with decommissioning the whole facility - a task likely to take decades and cost tens of billions of dollars
If the rods - there are 50-70 in each of the assemblies, which weigh around 300 kg (660 pounds) and are 4.5 meters (15 feet) long - are exposed to air or if they break, huge amounts of radioactive gases could be released into the atmosphere. 
The hazardous removal operation has been likened by Arnie Gundersen, a veteran U.S. nuclear engineer and director of Fairewinds Energy Education, to trying to pull cigarettes from a crushed pack. [Somehow this doesn't seem like such a big deal.]
When the time comes, extracting spent fuel from the plant's other reactors, where radiation levels are much higher because of core meltdowns, will be even more challenging. Reactors No. 1 and No. 3 sustained heavier damage than No. 4 as a result of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that knocked out power and cooling at the Fukushima station, triggering three meltdowns that sent a plume of radiation into the air and nearby Pacific Ocean.