Updates
March 4, 2021: from a reader who follows this very, very closely -- see comments below.
It's notable that no one saw this coming; some headlines on the report indicate a "surprise" build in crude supplies.
Before the report, forecasts were for a 1,805,000 barrel withdrawal.
Nor was there any recent news indicating longer term refinery damage; i.e., one recent headline said "oil prices mixed as refineries reopen."
There was also a 1,386,000 barrel per day swing in the balance sheet fudge factor that I follow; without that, we would have had a 30 million barrel build.
Zero Hedge: API had Cushing +732K barrels; EIA had Cushing +485K.
Original Post
Re-posting.
Weekly EIA petroleum data:
- US crude oil in storage increased by 21.6 million bbls from the previous week;
- US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.6 million bbls, only 3% above the five year average for this time of year
- refineries were operating at 56.0% of their operable capacity last week (week ending February 26, 2021)
- the time line:
- Texas Freeze; power lost: February 15, 2021
- power back on: February 19, 2021
- commerce back to normal: February 22, 2021
- distillate fuel inventories decreased by 9.7 million bbls; 2% below the five-year average for this time of year;
- propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.2 million bbls; 17% below the five-year average for this time of year
- jet fuel product supplied was down 24.2% compared with same four-week period last year
It will be interesting to see the "all" the data when Focus on Fracking posts Sunday night.
Re-balancing:
Generally, US crude oil in storage varies by one to five million bbls week-over-week. I don't recall a build of almost 22 million bbls in one week. And yet ... US crude oil in storage is pretty much at the 5-year average. And almost none of that increase was due to imports.
Energy independence? Sorry. Not sorry.
i haven't looked at the EIA report yet, but i'll bet you've nailed 3 record changes in this post alone...
ReplyDeleterefinery utilization is about 10% below the previous record low...i had expected that to recover; the damage must be worse than anyone has reported...
I was so amazed at what I saw, I simply decided to post the data and not even make any comments except about the 20+ million bbl build. Like you, I was blown away by the refinery operating capacity number.
Deleteit's notable that no one saw this coming; some headlines on the report indicate a "surprise" build in crude supplies; before the report, forecasts were for a 1,805,000 barrel withdrawal...nor was there any recent news indicating longer term refinery damage; ie, one recent headline said "oil prices mixed as refineries reopen"
Deletethere was also a 1,386,000 barrel per day swing in the balance sheet fudge factor that i follow; without that, we would have had a 30 million barrel build..
Yes, I saw the same thing -- that "no one" saw this coming. With all those stories about the Permian shut down, and really very minimal decrease in economic activity in the big scheme of things, one would have thought there would have been a net withdrawal.
DeleteBecause refineries were shut down, this suggests to me that the 20+ million bbl build was in the storage tanks owned by refiners and not necessarily at Cushing.
RBN Energy always does a good job analyzing such issues; it will be interesting if we hear from them about this 20+ million bbl build that was not anticipated.
as per Zero Hedge, API had Cushing +732k barrels; EPA had Cushing +485k
Delete