Some years ago I started following "natural gas fill rate." After a year or two of following this "fill rate" metric, the cyclic nature was entirely predictable, and whenever the fill rate started going outside the broad band (minimum / maximum), operators were able to respond almost immediately. At least that was my take.
So, I got bored with this whole metric and quit following it. But then a year or so ago, I started following it again. I don't remember what changed that changed my mind about following the natural gas fill rate.
After the Texas February (2021) Deep Freeze, I thought we might actually see something new. I thought natural gas inventories would plummet significantly and go well below the old minimum. Not to be.
The Texas Deep Freeze did take natural gas inventories below the five-year average and for a week or so it looked like, finally, operators were not going to be able to meet supply demand. And then, one to two weeks after the Texas Deep Freeze and the sharply downward trend started to level out. It was subtle but it was visible, and I posted that on March 4, 2021. That data would have been for week ending in late February, only two weeks after the Texas Deep Freeze.
I will continue to post the "fill rate" but I'm not sure why.
Gas back at 2.5. Poor poor permabulls and peak oil/gasers. With oil, they get a shot every now and then. But gas has just pounded their faces. Hard.
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