Saturday, April 6, 2013

For Archival Purposes Only; Perhaps Someday The Chapter Will Be Written Tying These Data Points Together

Some random data points that need to be connected; many of the data points are "my myths" -- I believe them to be true, but I'm not necessarily going to go back and cite sources; some data points are probably inaccurate, or somewhat inaccurate:
  • it takes several years and lots of capital to convert a light-oil refinery to a heavy-oil refinery
  • US gulf coast refineries were converted to heavy-oil refineries starting long before President Obama was elected president
  • oil men have known for quite some time the huge deposits of heavy oil in Alberta, Canada
  • oil men and, possibly, statesmen were not willing to let a Saddam family dynasty rule the world's largest oil reservoir
  • a heavy oil source for the Gulf Coast refineries included Venezuela
  • Mexican oil production had been falling precipitously
  • Gulf of Mexico, deep drilling yields heavy oil 
  • heavy oil will be needed by Gulf Coast refineries: three choices -- OPEC (Venezuela), Gulf of Mexico deep drilling (Mexico, US); Canada
  • Gulf of Mexico deep drilling heavy oil mishaps are unavoidable
  • Venezuela: OPEC, unreliable
  • pipeline companies will not build (in fact, in some cases, I believe, regulatory agencies won't allow pipeline companies to lay a pipeline) if the pipeline companies don't have contracts up front for the oil
  • it takes several years and lots of capital to build a transcontinental pipeline
  • light oil is good for gasoline and diesel, but that's about all
  • with some exceptions, the federal government will not allow US oil to be exported; refined products can be exported
  • heavy oil and wet natural gas provides the feedstock for plastic and fertilizer, and probably much more; light oil alone is not enough; in fact, if push comes to shove, heavy oil and wet natural gas is probably more necessary than light oil
  • until the fracking revolution, the US was running out of dry natural gas and was building terminals to import natural gas
  • environmentalists were blocking new natural gas import terminals (especially in the northeast)
  • fracking changed everything
  • dating back to WWII, most European refineries are geared to making gasoline
  • the #1 transportation fuel in Europe is now diesel, not gasoline
  • there is a shortage of diesel in the oil patch
  • a global recession has minimized the impact of a diesel shortage
  • the US is a major supplier of diesel for Europe
  • Europe will be idling at least ten (10) of their 104 refineries by 2020
  • Saudi Arabia recently stated that they are cutting production in April because (European) refineries are asking for less oil; they say this happens every April
  • along the Gulf Coast, free market capitalism had positioned the US very nicely for the future based on prevailing worldview prior to President Obama's world view
  • renewable energy will not provide for US transportation needs in the near future; renewable energy will be a niche energy source for decades, maybe centuries (the math, to argue otherwise, simply doesn't work); 2013 appears to be a tipping point for wind, solar (but that takes us to a new chapter). This data point is irrelevant for the purpose of this discussion but has to be dealt with.
A good writer could put together an interesting story line connecting these data points. Unfortunately I am not a good writer. With enough time I might be able to put together something, but I don't have the time. That's why this will be archived for future reference.  Additional data points may be added; data points that are found to be wrong will be corrected. This is a work in progress. Or not.

Some data sources that will help connect the dots:
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