| $54.12→ | 10/31/2017 | 10/31/2016 | 10/31/2015 | 10/31/2014 | 10/31/2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 51 | 34 | 70 | 193 | 180 |
RBN Energy: Marcellus/Utica natural gas production breaking records again.
A year ago, Lower-48 natural gas production was in steep decline and averaging less than 71 Bcf/d by the fall, down from nearly 74 Bcf/d in February 2016. The oil-price crash of 2014 had taken a toll on gas output, led by a drop in Texas. To add to that, Marcellus/Utica gas supply — which had helped prop up overall domestic gas production volumes — was no longer growing enough to offset those losses. The resulting decline in Lower-48 production helped to correct a huge storage imbalance that had developed in the market following the brutally mild winter of 2015-16.
That’s a far different picture than what’s happened in 2017. Gas production began this year below 70 Bcf/d, but has climbed to more than 74 Bcf/d in the past couple of months. And just last Thursday (October 26), production set a new record of 75.7 Bcf/d, exceeding the previous single-day record of 75.1 Bcf/d set in April 2015.
Several of the major supply basins are contributing to that uptick, but Marcellus/Utica gas production is again leading the pack. Today, we check in on Northeast gas production using pipeline flow data.
When we last looked into Northeast gas production using pipeline flow data in our April 2017 blog Unchain My Heart, the region was contending with high storage levels, insufficient demand and an overall low price environment — all the bearish effects of two consecutive mild winter seasons. Under those conditions, supply growth in the region had become downright sluggish. But that’s all changed in recent months. Rigs have returned to the region, activity has picked up and so has output. Today, we return to the same daily pipeline flow data from our friends at Genscape to see the latest trends in Northeast production.
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Other Energy News
Natural gas: world demand growing; grew by 2% in 2016. From Rigzone. Data points:
- Europe: +5.4%
- Asia-Pacific: +5.1%
- production grew by 0.7% despite an output decline of 3.2%in the US, the world's largest producer of natural gas
- Russia: resumed output growth
- world gas reserves increased by 0.9%; driven by US, Nigeria, and Iraq
- Russia still leads as the top holder of gas reserves; holds 25% of world's total
Bullish on WTI -- Boston Energy Research. Data points:
- WTI to remain stable around $53 through mid-2018
- the glut through 2018 is likely to persist, posting a temporary downside risk to oil prices
- rate of growth in the Permian to decrease
Increasingly closer spacing of wells to drain reservoirs may result in a reduction in productivity of later infill wells by as much as 20 to 30 percent compared to the productivity of initial wells drilled. A much lower near-term peak in Permian production would result as sweet spots are depleted. Still, technology is a wild card that could offset the negatives.
Pioneer Natural Resources, a leading producer in the Midland sub basin, believes “$50 oil isn’t going to get it done,” because it doesn’t generate enough cash flow and the industry has too much debt. “U.S. production may grow for 2 to 3 years and a few independents may grow, but we are in a $60 long term price environment,” the company said in a recent release.
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Need Confirmation From Other Sources ...
.... but it's being reported that there was a major nuclear-related mishap in North Korea recently.
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The Daily Commute
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