Now this, posted earlier today: JP Morgan says it's finally time to buy stocks despite trade woes. Link here at Bloomberg.
Beef: this is one of many stories suggesting the US beef story is likely to get better, much better, especially in Asia. From The WSJ: ravenous China could spice up US meat stocks. Connect this with the China pork story, from the linked article:
China’s plummeting hog population is a tailwind for U.S. meat producer Tyson Foods, despite the trade war.
For much of 2019, U.S. pork has faced Chinese tariffs upward of 50%. But
the value of U.S. meat exports in aggregate was still up 8.3% on the
year in June, the fastest growth since May 2018.
The reason: The enormous pork shortage is sucking meat into China at an astonishing rate. Total meat imports in July were $1.7 billion, up close to 90% from the year before.
Comment: making America great.
**********************************
Original Post
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Boeing Co has said it hopes to receive regulatory approval for updated flight control software at the center of both crashes in October, but it could take a month or two for airlines to train pilots on the new software and prepare the jets for commercial flight after sitting idle for months.
Warthog: gets $1 billion to keep the A-10 flying. According to The Motley Fool the Congressional "bone" to Boeing regarding the Warthog three years ago was a "windfall." Now The Motley Fool says:
The A-10 news got 10 times better for the aerospace giant.
Camille Paglia: a feminist capitalist professor under fire -- WSJ. Her ancestry must include a bit of French. French speakers use the name "Camille" for both males and females. Interestingly enough, Ms Paglia describes herself as neither male nor female, or as both male and female.
Continuing: these were added September 2, 2019:
Time to invest: JP Morgan says it's finally time to buy stocks despite trade woes. Link here at Bloomberg. Amazon: Amazon.com made a big move by acquiring an interest in the Canadian freight cargo carrier, Cargojet. Link here.
Second 100 Days Days 51 - 100 (days 151 - 200) Link here.
************************************
115th US Congress
Second 100 Days Days 1 - 50 (days 101 - 150)
May 31, 2019, T+50: this will get their attention. Trump slaps 5% tariff on Mexico and will increase the tariffs to 25% by October, 2019, if Mexico doesn't make meaningful progress in stopping the "southern surge."
May 30, 2019, T+49: it's obvious that Hillary is running for the Democratic nomination for president. There will be three phases: a) the phase she is in now; public speaking; attacking only Trump; not attacking the Democratic frontrunner(s); b) the anonymous attack dog phase -- when mainstream media starts attacking the frontrunner(s) -- the faux press releases will come from some organization that can't be traced back to Hillary; c) the open attack on the Democratic frontrunner(s). All this has to happen over the next twelve months; expect the first two phases to last for eleven months or so; the final phase will begin just before the DNC convention next summer.
Others cracking the 1% threshold, taking a bit from Biden/Bernie. I hope they all get on stage.
May 28, 2019, T+47: quiet -- except for the 52 tornadoes in Ohio. Global warming. Still no new polls reported since May 20. Beto: self-described "big asshole." Biden: no crowds.
May 27, 2019, T+46: Biden is nowhere in the news; he is laying low. Tea leaves suggest he could lose support after his initial "honeymoon." It could become a shoot-out among Pocahontas, Kamala Harris (who is loved by the media), Buttigieg (also loved by the media). Beto could pick up a few points at Biden-Bernie's expense but he's a non-entity. Still, no one is talking about Hillary or polling voters on Hillary. She is attending too many high-profile events to suggests she has not ruled out another run. I think she's a player. Polls have not been updated since May 20, 2019.
May 26, 2019, T+45: Jon Voigt is woke. Voight declares Trump is the greatest president since Abraham Lincoln. I agree.
May 25, 2019, T+44: Brennan, Clapper call it "outrageous" that Trump / Barr will declassify "intelligence" reports that said Trump colluded with the Russians. I find it somewhat amazing that Mueller didn't complete the job -- once he determined there was no collusion, to investigate how it all started; who started it.
May 24, 2019, T+43: more impeachment talk. Trump's "executive orders" continue to be shut down by Obama-appointed federal judges. China trade talks going nowhere. Brexit breaks Theresa: she tearfully announced her resignation. Set date for new elections -- just a couple of weeks from now. Tea leaves suggest it could be the worse upset, most lopsided vote in the history of England. I had forgotten she had voted against Brexit. No wonder things went so badly. One GOP representative stopped the $19-billion relief and recovery package for al the flooding in the US and the hurricane damage to Puerto Rico years ago. Interesting, interesting story: remember -- Nancy Pelosi controls the US House; this was a bill that was almost unanimously passed by the US Senate -- and one US representative stopped it.
May 23, 2019, T+42: Buttigieg at 6.2; Beto at 3.7. Warren ever closer to 10% (9.8 today). Harris at 8.0. Beto flailing; Buttigieg stalled.
May 22, 2019, T+41: Notre Dame, IN, the home of the University of Notre Dame, for all intents and purposes is a suburb of South Bend, IN. One would assume much of Buggigieg's support comes from "locals." The fact that he endorsed post-birth abortions and late third-trimester abortions (to include homicide following a failed abortion) -- as enacted by New York state -- may have been the Rubicon he should not have crossed. He already admitted a huge mis-step when coming out against childhood vaccines. It will be interesting to see whether his polling numbers have peaked.
May 21, 2019, T+40: quiet. Beto and Buttigieg flailing. I wonder if Buttigieg's appearance on Fox News hurt him?
May 20, 2019, T+39: Iowa -- Bernie/Biden tied. Perhaps that's the dream ticket -- Biden/Bernie.
May 19, 2019, T+38: quiet. In polling, Biden widens lead slightly over Bernie. Biden stays the same but Bernie drops. Kamala up slightly. Buttigieg up slightly. Dream ticket: Biden/Buttigieg or Biden/Kamala. Decisions, decisions. Beto drops below 4%. Apparently live-streaming his haircut/massage did not play well. Apparently he was born, not to be president, but to have his daily mundane activities streamed live. LOL.
May 18, 2019, T+37: conservative wins in Australia. "Global warming" scam in Australia dead. Done. Over.
May 17, 2019, T+36:
The University of Michigan’s preliminary print on its consumer sentiment
index rose to 102.4, up from 97.2 in April and well ahead of
expectations. The reading was the highest in 15 years. The last time the reading was this high was in 2004 -- before the Obama administration.
May 16, 2019, T+35: apparently the Dems are falling in line behind Pelosi -- stop all this talk about impeachment. If so, it looks like Hillary's star is fading; Hillary lost the battle. It also looks like Comey will be the fall guy (as noted earlier). As more and more of this comes out, there may be a reason the Dems are starting to re-assess.
May 15, 2019, T+34: panic sets in among Comey, Clapper, McCabe, Brennan as Barr (US Attorney General) sets sights on fake Steele dossier and spying (or surveillance) on Trump campaign. A silent coup. Comey may end up being the fall guy: In a statement to Fox News, a former CIA official put the blame squarely on Comey.
May 14, 2019, T+33: if Mueller is hesitant to talk before Congress, there may be a reason. There is now an active investigation into the original report that started everything. The original report was known to be bogus as soon as Mueller got it but he spent two years investigating. Mueller may get the chance to testify under oath before this is all over.
May 13, 2019, T+32: stock market plunges 600 points over China-US trade war.
May 12, 2019, T+31: Happy Mother's Day.
May 11, 2019, T+30: Biden now in the mid-40s; Bernie in the mid-teens. Pocahontas, Kamala, and Buttigieg each around 7%. All the rest irrelevant.
May 10, 2019, T+29: Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal lawyer, now plans to "collude" with the Ukrainians. And will share what he finds with the American public. LOL.
May 9, 2019, T+28: Still waiting for the US House to find Attorney General Barr in contempt of Congress. I still think he should call their bluff, plead guilty, and spend a few years resting, enjoying life.
May 8, 2019, T+27: The NYT says it has Trump's taxes, 1985 - 1994. Unable to explain large monetary gain in one of those years. Cattle futures? Accomplishments of the 115th US Congress are now being tracked here: .
May 7, 2019, T+26: wow, is this guy delusional?
Let's count the ways:
Declaration of Indepence
Bill of Rights
Emancipation Proclamation
WWII
The moon landing
Revolving sushi bars in Texas
May 6, 2019, T+25: market opens down 400 points; completely recovers. Investors being played.
May 5, 2019, T+24: after recent meeting with Putin, Kim fires off a few missiles. Trump says Kim would not go back on his word. I think Trump is being played. Sunday evening futures plunge: Dow off almost 400 points. S&P 500 down 40 points.
May 4, 2019, T+23: Kentucky Derby with 19 horses. Twenty horses are selected to run each year; one horse scratched within 24 hours of the start. Very, very "sloppy" race track. Muddy. But the rain has stopped.
May 3, 2019, T+22: Pelosi suggests Trump could contest results of the 2020 election. LOL.The list of accomplishments of the 115th US Congress:
May 2, 2019, T+21: Pelosi's house -- they're starting to make Occasional-Cortex look good.
May 1, 2019, T+20: In midst of greatest measles outbreak in two decades, Buttigieg says he supports vaccine exemptions based on personal beliefs. April 30, 2019, T+18: on the brink --
April 29, 2019, T+17: another record on Main Street. S&P 500 hits an intra-day high (posted at 11:16 a.m. Central Time).
April 28, 2019, T+16: this is not a political comment, just an observation. The best the Democrat party can do to take on Trump, is a 78-year-old white male who has run for president three times, or maybe seven times, depending on how one counts. Regardless, this is the best the country has to offer? But then again, a peanut farmer who took advice on nuclear disarmament from his 11-year-old daughter won the oval office some years ago.I guess nothing should surprise us any more.
April 27, 2019, T+15: just prior to his announcement Biden was polling 29% (through April 21, 2019). He announced April 25, 2019.
April 26, 2019, T+14: I was waiting to see if anyone noted the timing. It takes a few days to "reserve" one's spot in the op-ed of any newspaper. It was telegraphed that Joe Biden would announce his candidacy on Thursday, April 25, 2019, yesterday. Hold that thought. He made his announcement at oh-dark-thirty via a video which was released at the very same time the morning edition of the Washington Post was being delivered. And on the very day that Biden announced his candidacy, Hillary Clinton has her op-ed in the Washington Post.
April 25, 2019, T+13: Joe Biden, in a video aired at oh-dark-thirty, announces he will "definitely" run for president. His only policy statement: to run against Trump and making American great again. Say what you want, but this sounds like a woman who wants to jump back into the race:
Clinton continued in the piece to call on Congress to “hold substantive
hearings that build on the Mueller report and fill in its gaps,” and
said the country needs “clear-eyed patriotism, not reflexive
partisanship.”[After all, only she can provide that "clear-eyed patriotism."]
April 24, 2019, T+12: at some point, folks need to call out Bernie Sanders. It's one thing to be a communist/socialist, but supporting the "Marathon Bomber's" right to vote is beyond the pale. Kamala Harris, when asked the same question, agreed with Bernie before she began to walk that back. I had not heard her speak before in a town meeting venue. She sounded drunk or perhaps on medication. Having said that, this is an opportunity for Biden to put Bernie Sanders out to pasture. Biden can completely ignore the "felon's right to vote" issue but simply say the "Marathon Bomber will never be given the right to vote."
April 23, 2019, T+11: booming economy. Under Hillary it would have been one long recession.
April 22, 2019, T+10: over on Twitter, I quit following President Trump the re-tweets were becoming unbearable. My whole Twitter feed was becoming one big political feed. I will probably un-follow an oil analyst -- same problem -- tweets too often and uses all "CAPS."
April 21, 2019, T+9: from twitter today --
April 20, 2019, T+8: the Mueller investigation. A coup attempt. Led by Obama. Pure and simple.
April 19, 2019, T+7: Mueller investigation. Mainstream media shocked that President Trump took the investigation so seriously, got so upset over the witch hunt. Is that politically correct? "A witch hunt."
April 18, 2019, T+6: first time unemployment claims set new all-time record low -- last week it was a 50-week low; this week it's even lower. The Democrats' response: resist!
April 17, 2019, T+5: Everyone is upset that the attorney general brief his boss before he briefed Congress. LOL.
April 16, 2019, T+4: Hillary Clinton pledged to put a lot of coal miners out of work; she lost the election. Pocahontas, a millionaire and no need to worry about work, pledges to put a lot of oil and gas workers on the dole.
April 15, 2019, T+3: "Make America worse?"
April 14, 2019, T+2: 102nd day of the 115th US Congress. US House concerned that IRS not doing its job auditing Trump's tax returns -- one of the reasons they want his tax filings released. LOL. Tell me again that Lois Lerner did not take a look at those tax filings, and pass any concerning information to her boss. This all reminds me again how much "deep state" Trump was fighting when he won.
April 13, 2019, T+1: 101st day of the 115th US Congress.
The first hundred days of the 115th US Congress are linked here.
January 22, 2019, T+20, day 32 of the partial government shutdown. January 21, 2019, T+19, day 31 of the partial government shutdown: beta-male O'Rourke wondering out loud whether the US Constitution needs to be jettisoned certainly sounds like a dog whistle to those who want a revolution. Tone deaf? I understand completely why Mrs Pence wants to go back to teaching but the way in which she goes about it suggests she is very, very tone deaf. I don't know about "Mr." but it certainly seems Mrs Pence is out of her league in DC. The "second lady" going back to teaching art at a primary, private school? On the other hand, maybe this is her way to maintain her sanity while rowing on a boat in/on a sea of insanity. [Later: the left wing reaction to Ms Pence's decision tells me she made the right decision; I was completely wrong.]. Right-sizing the government.
January 20, 2019, T+18, day 30 of the partial government shutdown. I wrote earlier that Occasional-Cortex will have to get more and more outlandish to get the headlines, and here we are. She said that she will "run train" on the GOP:
To "run train," is a series of consecutive fornication acts on a single female (generally, but I suppose it could also be 'on' on male). Often, but not always, I suppose, the single female is seen as a willing partner in the activity. I pretty much doubt the GOP will be a willing partner in any Congressional "train." Just saying. And some folks are upset with a single line the president was said to have said decades ago in a locker room -- well before he was a public figure.
January 19, 2019, T+17, day 29 of the partial government shutdown. These folks are smiling: they are still getting a paycheck:
January 18, 2019, T+16, day 28 of the partial government shutdown.
January 17, 2019, T+15, day 27 of the partial government shutdown.
January 16, 2019, T+14, day 26 of the partial government shutdown --
This is going to be a fascinating story to follow. Both sides have
dug themselves in so deep -- I assume Trump is waiting for some major
event to occur -- like another successful plane hijacking -- to allow
him to declare it a national emergency and then see if the Democrats/and
20 GOP Senators dare block a funding bill with funding for a wall.
It's possible a complete breakdown at the California border could have Governor Gavin Newsom himself declaring a state emergency. That is, of course, his worse nightmare. Other than coal energy.
January 15, 2019, T+13, day 25: in anticipation of open borders, Texas is starting to install minarets from which muezzins can call Muslims to prayer:
January 14, 2019, T+12, day 24: for the media wringing their hands over all the government employees on furlough -- I don't recall much media outcry when this was going on -- from April 5, 2013:
March
Jobs Numbers: Horrendous. Labor Pool Is Lowest Since 1979 When Jimmy
Carter Was President; The President's Response -- Raise Taxes; Memo to
Chris -- Wake Up! Post-Mortems: No Mention Of The 800-Pound Gorilla --
ObamaCare
January 13, 2019, T+11, day 23: so there we are. Longest partial shutdown in history and it appears most Americans are unaware. About half of voters, or 47 percent, blame Trump for the shutdown, according to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll. A third of respondents blame Democrats in Congress, and 5 percent say it rests with congressional Republicans. Link here. The link is at the most liberal US newspaper.
January 12, 2019, T+10, day 22: now the longest "partial government" shutdown in history.
January 11, 2019, T+9, day 21: now ties longest previous shutdown. Political theater. All congress needs to do is send a bill to Trump to veto; then see which of the 53 GOP US senators dare vote against Trump to override the veto. Two-thirds of 100 is 67 votes. There are 47 Democrats/independents that will vote to override Trump's veto. 67-47 = 20. The Dems would need to find 20 GOP senators to vote to override Trump's veto. In the most recent most liberal newspaper, the most "they" can find is a half dozen or so." A half dozen or so is eight. Link here.
January 10, 2019, T+8, day 20: Beto AKA Nacho is beginning a college tour; so 1960s; I did not know he was a thrice-admitted felon; spent time in jail for burglary. Meanwhile, Trump to visit the southern border (Texas/Mexico) today.
January 9, 2019, T+7, day 19: California taxpayers can't afford health care insurance for their own families, but the governor will now advocate for free health care for illegal immigrants. Americans are generous to a fault. On another note, yet another dead body within the Hillary Clinton circle is reported. How many dead bodies does that make it for the Hillary team, starting with Vince Foster? Trump gives his oval office speech on "the wall."
January 8, 2019, T+6, day 18: a reader suggested that Pocahontas swigging beer on social media is as bad a stereotype of the native American as one could imagine. January 7, 2019, T+5, day 17: government shutdown now tied with third longest -- the Obama/ObamaCare shutdown. Meanwhile, the MSM is talking the US into a mild recession. If so, the "Fed" owns it.
January 6, 2019, T+4, day 16: why Occasional-Cortex will fail -- even mainstream Democrats don't want her. There are three parties in the US: far left, the Dems, and the GOP. Neither the Dems nor the GOP will let the far left win. Occasional-Cortex is now sucking all of the oxygen out of any room in which Bernie tries to talk.
January 5, 2019, T+3 of the new Congress, day 15 of the government shutdown: in a reply to a reader regarding the wall --
Agree completely, re: the wall.
When Lindsey Graham came out in support of Trump on the wall that spoke volumes.
I
think it's agreed that if Trump folds on the wall, he loses his base.
Was it Ann Coulter that has "baited" Trump by saying that Trump will
"fold" on the fall? Brilliant strategy by Ann Coulter, if it was her. I
forget.
I know I'm wrong on this, but I
think the American public will be behind Trump on the wall; they won't
support Pelosi on the wall. Schumer is #2 in the Senate so he's a
non-player. Mitch O'Connell has said he won't advance any spending bills
without funding for the wall.
I think
it's Trump vs Pelosi on this issue. If he can frame it that way, he's
won. Now that she says she is as an equal to the president, she has as
much power as he does to fund the government.
The
biggest problem for the mainstream media with regard to the "partial"
shutdown of the government -- no photo ops, no live video. Nothing to
excite viewers of the evening news.
And, we've
been through "partial" government shutdowns so many times, the concept
no longer frightens folks. And it turns out, the president can find
funding to pay essential workers if need be, like paying the US Coast
Guard.
January 4, 2019, T+2 of the new Congress, day 14 of the shutdown: Constitutional expert -- Pelosi says the US Constitution says she is the equal of the US president. LOL. But --
January 3, 2019, T+1, day 13: ah, yes, hits the target again --
January 2, 2019, T+57, day 12: ah, yes, the 57 states of America. Loser:
January 1, 2019, T+56: these are the days I see critical with regard to the government shutdown, day 11:
Monday, January 7, 2019, when the holidays are finally over for government workers
Sunday/Monday, January 20/21, 2019, when the new Democratic congress is sworn in
Tuesday, January 22, 2019, likely date of the State of the Union Address
Tuesday, January 29, 2019, the last Tuesday in January, 2019
December 31, 2018, T+55: Day 10 of the "partial government" shutdown, but in fact, most non-essential government workers would have had most of those days "off" anyway. The government shutdown only "gets serious" when we get to Monday, January 7, 2019.
December 30, 2018, T+55: Day 9 of the "partial government" shutdown. Energy impacts remain minimal. The US House is on track to impeach President Trump. It will be interesting if the "partial government shutdown" and the impeachment process becomes intertwined. Something about baking a bear into a corner.
December 29, 2018, T+54: Day 8 of the "partial government" shutdown.
December 28, 2018, T+53: Day 7 of the "partial government" shutdown. It's one thing for President Trump to tween this, but when I see Senator Lindsey Graham tweet this, it gets my attention. By the way, Nancy Pelosi is in Hawaii, which tells me this issue is "dead" until at least January 20, 2019.
December 27, 2018, T+52: Day 6 of the "partial government" shutdown.
December 26, 2018, T+51: after watching Pope Francis and Christmas Eve mass it's hard for me to take his lecturing on my values seriously. This is a man who took vows of poverty (I assume) and has truly failed to lay down the law on the sexual transgressions that have come to light over the past decade. Day 5 of the "partial government" shutdown. No urgency to solve the problem. My hunch: they will kick the can down the road until the new Congress is sworn in, January 20, 2019. As far as I know, it's in the hands of Congress. Congress has not sent the president a bill to sign. I assume they can send him a funding bill and if he vetoes it, they can override it with a veto.
December 25, 2018, T+50: headlines suggest that Turkey is the big winner in light of the US pullout from Syria. Turkey will be the new "Islamic State." The Kurds are the big, big losers. This is monumental. Turkey will take the lead in the fight in the north; Saudi Arabia will be involved to the extent they can afford it. The Kurds, along with the US, destroyed ISIS. The Kurds hold Manbij which was an ISIS stronghold. The US met Turkish demands that the Kurds exit Manbij to prevent the Kurds from gaining access to the Mediterranean Sea.
December 24, 2018, T+49: I've never seen such pageantry, gold, and wealth from a man who took vows of poverty. Wow.
December 23, 2018, T+48:from twitter --
December 22, 2018, T+47:US ISIS envoy appointed by Obama; can't stand the heat; resigns. Day 1 of the "partial government" shutdown.
December 21, 2018, T+46:SecDef "Mad Dog" Mattis can't stand the heat; resigns. Congress refuses to send the president a funding bill. "Partial government" shutdown -- whatever that means.
December 20, 2018, T+45: McCain liked, and FBI knew it. The agency has the fingerprint proof. But the big story? The wall. It is said that Trump often makes his final decision based on whom he listens to last. One wonders if he will listen to his base. From the AP today.
December 19, 2018, T+44: like global warming, "the call for a wall" appears to be simply playing
to the "base" and a "fund-raising" issue. Apparently it wasn't all that
important. The delta between $5 billion (Trump) and $2 billion
(Congress) is $3 billion. The cost of a B-2 bomber, according to a wiki
source, $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, Trump will send $5 billion to Mexico to strengthen its southern wall; and another $5 billion in aid to "central America" to encourage Hondurans to stay home.
December 18, 2018, T+43: it looks like Trump blinked on the wall.
December 17, 2018, T+42: government shutdown? LOL. The US government shuts down every year around Christmas - Hannukah - Kwanzaa - New Year's for two to four weeks. Even in the military, we stood down for two weeks except for "critical missions" and/or "mission-essential duties." But we pretty much shut down for two weeks.
December 16, 2018, T+ 41: quiet.
December 15, 2018, T+ 40: quiet.
December 14, 2018, T+39: Trump's corrupt, turncoat lawyer sentenced to three years in prison. Will probably be out in 18 months with good behavior.
December 13, 2018, T+38: Mulvaney draws the short straw; will become acting Chief of Staff for president Trump;
December 12, 2018, T+37: Trump sets up Pelosi, Schumer in oval office.
December 11, 2018, T+36: France continues to burn.
December 10, 2018, T+35: quiet. Will last for a New York minute.
December 9, 2018, T+34: New England Patriots (NFL) get beat by one point in last twenty seconds.
December 8, 2018, T+33: Still no word from Macron? Meanwhile, in the White House, lots of changes being announced for the second half of the Trump's first term. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert is Trump's choice to succeed Nikki Haley as US ambassador to the United Nations, even as the White House moved to downgrade the job from a Cabinet-level position. Nauert, a former Fox News host who arrived at the State Department in 2017, would be a relatively inexperienced newcomer in one of the most high-profile positions in US diplomacy. Her nomination sets the stage for a potentially tough Senate confirmation hearing, where Democrats will likely grill Nauert on her qualifications for the position.
December 8, 2018, T+32: Occasional-Cortex is all hat and no cattle but she needs to be taken seriously. Hey, how about a Beto-Cortex in 2020? Meanwhile, is Macron toast?
December 7, 2018, T+31: a lot of documents released by Mueller's team. There will be more than enough for the House to impeach Trump. Whether he's "legally" guilty or not, does not matter. It's all political and all perception.
December 6, 2018, T+30: I'm having trouble reconciling all the accolades for
George H. W. Bush and the yearning for the polite politics of another
age. Oh, give me a break. Quick? Who nominated Clarence Thomas to be a
Supreme Court justice? To replace whom?
December 5, 2018, T+29: is it just me or do others agree that it's nice to talk about a temporary truce over trade wars rather than a temporary truce following a shooting war. On another note: if looks could could kill:
December 4, 2018, T+28: temporary truce with China over trade tariffs.
December 3, 2018, T+27: listening to the accolades, it sounds as if Bush I was the best US president in modern history. That's why he served only one term; replaced by Bill who was impeached and served two full terms and had it not been for term limits, would have been re-elected for a third term.
December 2, 2018, T+26: Trump has successes / breakthroughs with both Mexico and China (actually with Canada also) but the mainstream media won't cover those successes / breakthroughs (trade, immigration). And on trade, the Democratic House will try to stop him. On immigration, everyone is pretty much aligned -- except funding "the wall."
December 1, 2018, T+25: most compelling First Lady in history and the press ignores her. Not one "glamour" cover photo. Michelle had too many to count. Michelle, not counting Oprah's own magazine, probably featured on more magazine covers than Oprah.
November 30, 2018, T+24: Trump signs new NAFTA bill. Both sides of the aisle said it couldn't be done. Amazing what Trump is accomplishing with all the push back he gets and the witch hunt.
I can't wait to see him get impeached by the US House. The amount of "stuff" unloaded on Congressmen will be unprecedented. We may finally find out what really happened in Dallas in 1963. [Purely, purely coincidental -- posting this short update several hours later -- I am now watching Executive Action on TCM.]
November 29, 2018, T+23: Schumer agrees with Trump on China. And Schumer was very, very clear about it.
November 28, 2018, T+22: Mississippi re-elects GOP's candidate for US Senate.
November 27, 2018, T+21: quiet.
November 26, 2018, T+20: folks were worried about GMO grains, beef, etc. LOL. Now, we have GMO human beings. Maybe finally folks will get past their GMO grains, beef concerns.
November 25, 2018, T+19: all things being equal, President Trump would be correct, but, in fact, the market is tanking. What's up with that?
November 24, 2018, T+18: the difference between Obama and Trump. Obama would have caved. The Mexican president-elect knows that Trump means business -- apparently Trump win -- asylum seekers will remain in Mexico while individual cases are adjudicated. No more optics of children being removed from mothers on the US side of the border.The caravan grinds to a halt.
November 23, 2018, T+17: let's see -- this photo was taken after "9-11." And folks, like me, are calling out Trump? We're all hypocrites. Having said that, I feel strongly that Trump needed to get out in front of the Khashoggi issue. I don't know; maybe I'm wrong. Realpolitik. What would Kissinger do?
November 22, 2018, T+16: Hillary is clearly running for president in 2020 until she isn't. She is now siding with Trump on migration, but threading the needle by focusing on Europe. So, fight's on: Hillary vs Beto. Let's see who gets to Iowa first. Beto: if he shows up second, gives up huge advantage.
November 21, 2018, T+15: Trump doubles down on his "support" for MbS re: Khashoggi. Trump's stance is completely unacceptable. He could lose "bigley" on this one.
November 20, 2018, T+14: market tumbles another 520 points.
November 19, 2018, T+13: Brenda Snipes resigns -- Blow-Hard County, FL, Supervisor of Elections, resigns.
November 18, 2018, T+12: "Little Adam Schitt" tagged.
November 17, 2018, T+11: quiet.
November 16, 2018, T+10: in The WSJ, Peggy Noonan completely mis-read Melania. CNN/Acosta win Pyrrhic victory.
November 15, 2018, T+9: Brexit proving to be a disaster for Britain.
November 14, 2018, T+8: Germany and France, nationalistic? Germany to re-militarize? Merkel / Macron want to raise their own "national" armies. Within / outside NATO construct? The two countries need to fear losing their borders to Mideast "caravans" more than they need to worry about Russia. But, whatever.
November 13, 2018, T+7: Iranian sanctions working like a charm! LOL. WTI drops another 4%, now trading below $57.50. The plunge is due to Trump's "bait and switch." Had Obama done this oil bulls and the oil industry would have been furious.
November 12, 2018, T+6: folks are talking about a constitutional crisis involving the White House. The only constitutional crisis developing is the "theft" going on in Florida. Also, questionable results in Arizona.
November 11, 2018, T+5: quiet.
November 10, 2018, T+4: quiet.
November 9, 2018, T+3: I just saw the video of Acosta accosting the accosted intern. It's actually worse than what I saw live -- the new video has a close-up. It appears the intern easily could have had a broken arm in the event. Certainly possible for a periosteal tear or bruise. They are painful but heal without incidence. I would assume that at a minimum the accosting Acosta will have to apologize, and perhaps even give up personally holding the microphone in the future if allowed to return to the White House grounds.
November 8, 2018, T+2: possibly nothing else will come of/from this, but generally there is more behind the headline than just the simple headline. My hunch is that along with the White House ban on Acosta coming on White House grounds, the White House press pool was given some additional "guidelines" regarding White House press conferences. There is no reason, reporters need to scream to get the president's attention; just as there is a pecking order in seating, there should be a pecking order for asking questions -- perhaps the same pecking order -- of course, we would need to change the seating order to ensure foreign correspondents weren't sitting at the back of the room.
November 7, 2018, T+1: the only talk in Texas this morning, after the mid-terms -- not only is Beto a loser, he showed his true colors in his concession speech: he is certainly no statesman. And folks talk about Trump's tweets. Wow. US Senate: Trump went 8-for-8. Mainstream media went 0-for-8.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Weekly petroleum report:
oil price called the crude oil build yesterday, a massive build / a mammoth build which resulted in the price of oil ... drum roll ... staying flat -- see below
a massive drawdown of crude oil inventories: dropped 2.1 million bbls -- on this news? WTI spikes to $71.44 -- Bakken bellwether stocks -- NOG up 0.85% and OAS up 1.7%
US crude oil inventories now well below the 400-million-bbl threshold, at 394.1 million bbls
US crude oil inventories now about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year
refineries are only operating at 95.4% of their capacity -- think about those two data points
gasoline production and distillate fuel production changes unremarkable
the remarkable data point regarding refined product produced? jet fuel produced was up 5% compared to same four-week period last year
gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls
But, wow, look at this, gasoline demand, nice but I can't explain it:
Re-posting: API data and comments from yesterday's data --
API weekly crude oil inventories. We'll start with two movies.
the movie I saw
price of oil did not move yesterday after the data was released
the gasoline "story" is driving the price of oil; not Libya, not Venezuela, not Iran; not China trade war
US crude oil inventories unexpectedly grew by 1.25 million bbls
the build was a yawner: up 1 million bbls following a week when there was an unprecedented (?) draw of over 8 million bbls
gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million bbls vs an expected draw of 104,000 bbls
headline: "oil prices up despite massive crude oil build"
US crude oil inventories: "mammoth build of 1.25 million bbls"
analyst (singular) expectations: a draw of 2.741 million bbls
(2,741,000 bbls -- that false precision is stunning - estimated to the
nearest thousand bbls -- wow; now I know we're counting the number of
angels dancing on the head of a pin)
gasoline inventories: a draw of 1.485 million bbls (again, the false
precision); vs analysts (plural) prediction of a small draw of 104,000
bbls
1.485 is greater than 1.25 so if "1.25 million is mammoth", then "1.485 must be humongous"
"oil prices were up in afternoon trade by around 1/2% compared to last week's prices"
the writer did not note that comparing the price of oil immediately before and after the API data was released: no change
***************************
The Dictionary Page
Metonym: one of my favorite words.
I don't recall when I first used that word.
I don't recall if I've ever seen the word "in the wild." Until today.
In the essay, Ghomeshi wrote about his name becoming a "metonym for
everything from male privilege to the need for due process" and about
being shamed and humiliated in the wake of the sexual assault
allegations against him.
Holy mackerel: is anyone paying attention? I wasn't. A reader alerted me. Look at AAPL:
AAPL futures: up another $1.14 -- now trading at $211.34
euphoria begets euphoria
and Abraham beget Isaac (1 Chronicles 1:34-36) -- one of Trump's favorite books in the bible, but I digress
why (the jump in AAPL)?: Chinese-US trade talks resume
Tim Cook had dinner with Donald Trump this past weekend
Tim's #1 concern: his #1 market ten years from now -- that would be China
Tim's #2 concern: quarterly earnings reports
three business days later, the press reports that US-Chinese trade talks resume
on a side note: AAPL pays its dividend today -- 73 cents/share, I believe, could be wrong;
for every thousand shares, one account will grow by $730 -- is that correct? that sounds like a lot; whatever
if AAPL opens at its current price, it will set another all-time record
****************************** Walmart
Holy mackerel: is anyone paying attention? Apparently a lot of nimble traders. WMT is up 10% in early trading. Look at these numbers --
2Q18, comparable store sales: up 4.5%
consensus: 2.2% growth
wow -- talk about a huge miss by the analysts
CEO says this is the best quarterly comp sales results in a decade (need to fact check)
adjusted earnings of $1.29/share, beating estimates of $1.22
full year guidance raised from $4.90 - $5.05, up from previous guidance of $4.75 - $5.00
bright spot: e-commerce
Amazon? Monopoly? What monopoly?
Walmart looks to grow sales by 40% for the full year -- I could be way wrong, but I doubt Amazon is going to grow sales by 40% for the full year -- but if they do ---wow, wow, wow -- think about twhat this means for the US economy -- making America great again
most of its sales: groceries and household staples
fresh food sales: best grocery comp sales in 9 years
but rolling out "premium" brands
more than 1,000 new brands have been added to Walmart.com this year which is a key focus for the company
Omni-channel: key area for Walmart, especially online grocery service
tariffs? Walmart noted it but sounds unconcerned. Remember: Walmart, at one time, had a huge focus on "Buy American." I doubt that culture has changed much. From the CFO:
" ... in all of our markets where we have stores and eCommerce
operations, the majority of our merchandise is purchased locally in that
country. In fact, we buy more merchandise, by a wide margin, in the
U.S. than from any other country.
******************************
Mid-Morning Trading
Selected --
Dow: up 330 points
NASDAQ: up 52 points
S&P 500 (the only one that really matters): up 20 points
WTI: flat at $65 -- many, many reasons -- the relatively large plunge of 4% in past few days has to be due to fundamentals like US crude oil inventories, but some of it, maybe a dollar or so per bbl has to be related to the very strong dollar; another dollar or so due to fears of Turkish contagion
AAPL: up an astounding $2.00, a 1%jump -- it's astounding because --
it didn't take part in the "correction"
it continues to rise despite being a huge, mature fashion company
it continues to rise despite the Chinese trade war
WMT (after reporting best sales in a decade): up an astounding 10%; up $8.72 cents; still trading below its 52-week high of $110; trading at around $98;
I won't look at the others of the high volatility over the past few days; will look at everything when the dust settles -- but, wow, what a buying opportunity
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.
This was my unedited, not-ready-for-prime-time reply:
Thank you. I don't follow commodities (other than oil, natural gas)
as a rule, and don't really understand the nuances. So, I'm probably
"missing" much of the point of the article.
However, this paragraph jumped out at me:
The People’s Republic accounts for about half of global consumption of most metals.
As we’ve argued before,
that’s hard to square with levels of demand in comparable industrial
economies, even when you strip out the effects of export trade.
It’s at
least as probable that the numbers have been driven by the orgy of
fixed-asset investments that’s caused Beijing to build railways and pipelines to nowhere, the world’s most sophisticated long-distance electricity transmission network, and enough copper-wire-filled homes to house half its population over the past decade.
Translating:
China's consumption of metals -- assuming the data is correct -- is way
out of bounds -- what one would expect a country of China's size/GDP to
be consuming. China is consuming way more metal than it can possibly
use, if I am reading the Bloomberg article correctly.
"...
to build railways and pipelines to nowhere...." --- if that's accurate,
and, "... enough copper to wire half its population over the past
decade ..." that suggests to me that China is spending a lot of its
"trade imbalance" dollars on public works projects to keep its millions
of young men gainfully employed.
Now adding: this paragraph --- repeating --
The People’s Republic accounts for about half of global consumption of most metals. As we’ve argued before,
that’s hard to square with levels of demand in comparable industrial
economies, even when you strip out the effects of export trade. It’s at
least as probable that the numbers have been driven by the orgy of
fixed-asset investments that’s caused Beijing to build railways and pipelines to nowhere, the world’s most sophisticated long-distance electricity transmission network, and enough copper-wire-filled homes to house half its population over the past decade.
-- is something I would expect to read in a blog. But this is done by a recognized professional, reliable, credible source, Bloomberg, adding gravitas to that paragraph.
By the way, if you go to the linked Bloomberg article, it will take you to other great stories that substantiate their claims, especially the "railways and pipelines to nowhere."
We've seen this movie before: five-year planning at the central (Federal) level -- China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba -- vs free market capitalism in the US.
We have some bridges to nowhere, but very few -- and they were pork-barrel projects sponsored by a few key US senators in return for their votes for something more important for Congress at large.
By the way, there is a new theme in those Bloomberg articles, something I was unaware of: the Chinese labor force is declining for the first time in a decade (or something like that) just as China introduces its "Belt and Road" vision. Even with that decline in the labor force, I still maintain China needs to keep its young male population gainfully employed.
But now we have three reasons why China needs to get back to the bargaining table regarding trade:
keep the young male population gainfully employed
fund the state's "Belt and Road" vision (just like Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030)
keep their Chinese bankers from committing suicide as the banks start to fail
Later, 6:28 p.m. CDT: after writing the note below, it suddenly dawned on me. If relatively mild sanctions -- some of which have not even been implemented yet -- are supposedly hurting China this much, think what much stricter sanctions are doing to Iran: a much smaller nation, and a much less diverse economy. Something tells me the big story below has to do with the country not mentioned: Iran.
For now, I'm going to assume folks can get to the article who want to see the article. If unable due to a paywall, the lede:
Trump’s tariffs and trade threats. But as it becomes clear that a protracted trade war with the United States may be unavoidable, there are growing signs of unease inside the Communist political establishment.
In recent days, officials from the Commerce Ministry, the police and other agencies have summoned exporters to ask about plans to lay off workers or shift supply chains to other countries.
With stocks slumping and the currency dropping 9 percent against the dollar since mid-April, censors have been deleting a torrent of criticism online, some of it directed at President Xi Jinping’s leadership.
I found the article fascinating, and "right on target."
These are some random data points that pinged around in my little mind when I read the article.
most recently, about four weeks ago (?), Scott Adams mentioned in passing but very clearly stated that China will blink / acquiesce / drop tariffs / come back to the bargaining table once we see one or two large banks in China fail -- Scott Adams didn't pick that out of thin air -- his source was impeccable, no doubt, only because it seemed to be such an odd prognostication
despite the media trying to convince us otherwise, Trump is a very, very smart man -- he would not take serious action on any issue without really understanding the issue -- and unlike most presidents, he is not politically ideological -- he is laser-focused on American business
Trump is a business man; he is an international businessman; he knows what's going on in China, Russia; his detractors are not business men, they do not know what is going on in China, Russia
unlike most politicians: no "bridge is too far." He is willing to meet one-on-one with anyone, and willing to bargain
several years ago, I commented that China's Achille's heel is its huge young, male population. A legacy of the one-child mandate, China has a huge, male population -- China needs to keep them employed; even a small country like Saudi Arabia knows they can't have a dispossessed young male population; this bullet, by the way, should be the #1 bullet in this list, but I put it here for a reason
a lot of folks don't think a country can implode overnight; hellooooo -- take a look at Venezuela; Chinese leaders know that no country is "too big to fail"
because China is autocratic / dictatorial, anti-Trumpers think China can outlast Trump; perhaps China can, but there are a lot of very, very rich, strong, influential business leaders and political leaders that are more worried about numero uno (themselves) than their leader -- a very, very rich banker whose bank fails ...
and, finally, a lot of Chinese probably don't like the idea of a premier who is now "premier-for-life"
From the linked NY Times article:
If the trade war escalates — and Mr. Trump has shown no sign of backing
down — some worry that the public’s faith in the economy could be
shaken, exposing the nation to much more serious problems than a drop in
exports. New economic data on Tuesday showed slower growth in
investment and consumer spending, and there are fears that the financial
crisis in Turkey could spread.
China’s leaders have argued that they
can outlast Mr. Trump in a trade standoff. Their authoritarian system
can stifle dissent and quickly redirect resources, and they expect
Washington to be gridlocked and come under pressure from voters feeling
the pain of trade disruptions.
But
the Communist Party is vulnerable in its own way. It needs growth to
justify its monopoly on power and is obsessed with preventing social
instability. Mr. Xi’s strongman grip may be hindering effective
policymaking, as officials fail to pass on bad news, defer decisions to
him and rigidly carry out his orders, for better or worse.
Wouldn't it be ironic if North Korea turned out not to be the big story of the year, but rather talk of regime change in Beijing?
A bridge too far? From the linked article:
“All of this coming together suggests Xi’s grip on authority has been
loosened,” said Willy Wo-lap Lam, a longtime observer of Chinese
politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “He’s unable to fill
his function as the final arbiter who settles differences among his
closest advisers.”
It is unlikely Mr. Xi’s position is in any jeopardy. But the trade dispute, along with a scandal over tainted vaccines and protests over failed investments, have already emboldened some critics of his sweeping centralization of power.
And Scott Adams' comment on banks?
The worst case for China, however, is that the trade war undermines
economic confidence. The nation’s housing market teeters on a mountain
of debt, and low-interest loans from state banks have built overcapacity
in many industries. The worry is that prolonged trade tensions could
cause money to rush out of China despite currency controls and prompt
much bigger financial and economic troubles.
This is pretty cool. Last week I said that as of T+75, the daily note would move on from Trump's tariffs to sanctions on Iran regardless of the news that day. Well, today is T+75 of Trump's trade wars. Time to move on. The trade wars amounted to little in the big scheme of things.
Although it's still August 14, 2018, T+75, we will post the first daily note in this series and date it as of August 15, T+1.
Iran Sanctions
October 18, 2018, T+66: this page has gotten too long -- time to move on ...
October 17, 2018, T+65: looks like Saudi Arabia will find way to thread the needle after killing a journalist.
October 14, 2018, T+62: Hillary defends Weinstein. Says if women are adults at the time of sexual harassment, it cannot be "an abuse of power." Wow. I can't make this up. From Fox News reporting on Hillary's interview with CBS today:
Hillary Clinton, who went on to be elected to the Senate and
served as President Obama’s secretary of state, said the relationship
was not an abuse of power because Lewinsky “was an adult.” At the time
of the affair, Lewinsky was 22.
October 13, 2018, T+61: quiet.
October 12, 2018, T+60: Dow (irrelevant) gains almost 300 points.
October 11, 2018, T+59: Dow (irrelevant) falls almost 600 points.
October 10, 2018, T+58: Dow (irrelevant) falls almost 900 points.
October 9, 2018, T+57: quiet.
October 8, 2018, T+56: he does have a point --
October 7, 2018, T+55: my favorite video of the day, LOL. I hope it loops over and over on election day. I enjoy it best with the video turned OFF ... it makes me think of Druids and Stonehenge.
October 6, 2018, T+54: Heitkamp, Schumer, et al -- politicians and petty; Susan Collins: a senator and stateswoman. Outshines Diane Feinstein. But wow, I was completely wrong. I thought Feinstein played this well and had won. Final vote: 50 - 48, apparently with one GOP senator not showing up to vote; and one GOP senator checking that she was "present" but had not yet made up her mind.
October 5, 2018, T+ 53:
October 4, 2018, T+ 52: Heidi Heitkamp will vote "against" Kavanaugh.
October 3, 2018, T+51: Washington, DC -- more
entertaining then ever. Every print media eagerly looking forward to day
they splash this headline: "You're Fired."
October 2, 2018, T+50: holding pattern, again today ...
October 1, 2018, T+49: Iran sanctions starting to bite; China economy shows signs of slowing down due to trade war; and, Canada blinks.
September 30, 2018, T+48: US golfers at Ryder Cup -- huge embarrassment. Wow. Could they have possibly done any worse?
September 29, 2018, T+47: if I were a 17 y/o male, I would never again go to a party where there were women; I would never date a woman; I would never go into any room and close the door. When practicing medicine in the USAF, I never closed my office/exam room door.
September 28, 2018, T+46, posted 10:10 a.m.CDT, September 27, 2018):
What difference does it make?
September 27, 2018, T+45: nomination won't come out of committee. (Posted 6:45 p.m. CDT, September 25, 2018.) Thursday, September 27, 2018: wow, what an incredible day -- Trump takes on China; Trump delays meeting with Rosenstein; SEC charges Elon Musk with fraud; TSLA drops 10%; unbiased reporting suggests Kavanaugh saved himself; but the media will spin the story; big story: will Grassley hold the committee vote Friday; Genscape suggests New England could have huge natural gas shortage risk over next few weeks;
September 26, 2018, T+44: into the danger zone.
September 25, 2018, T+43: in the past 24 hours, things look brighter for Kavanaugh. Should be a very, very interesting Thursday.
September 23, 2018, T+41: this must have been one heck of a party that all these folks can actually remember this party. I recall a few parties during my college days, but I don't recall the specifics dates, or the locations, and I kept a lot of journals during this time.
September 22, 2018, T+40: accuser given more time. Palo Alto loony sets US Senate schedule. Headline says she has agreed to testify. She said nothing of the sort. She said negotiations will continue. Grassley needs to schedule the vote and tell the accuser she is welcome to testify whenever she wants. This is just the committee vote, not the Senate confirmation vote. For Pete's sake.
September 21, 2018, T+39: Trump tweets -- Senator Feinstein and the Democrats held the letter for months, only to
release it with a bang after the hearings were OVER - done very
purposefully to Obstruct & Resist & Delay. Let her testify, or
not, and TAKE THE VOTE!
September 20, 2018, T+38: Kenney, Kopechne, Kaepernick, Kavanaugh, Kaos.
September 19, 2018, T+37: Well played, Ms Feinstein.
September 18, 2018, T+36: Kennedy, Kopechne, Kaepernick, Kavanaugh.
September 17, 2018, T+35: End of the line.
End of the Line, The Traveling Wilburys
September 16, 2018, T+34: Kavanugh #MeToo.
September 15, 2018, T+34: Kavanaugh accused.
September 14, 2018, T+33: for first time in 13 years, US will sell beef to China. Not one single pound of beef was sold to the Chinese under the Obama administration -- a policy that began under the "intellectually uncurious" George Bush and continued by Barack "you can't just drill your way to lower oil prices" Obama.
September 13, 2018, T+32: lest we forget.
September 12, 2018, T+31: someday we are going to look back on the Trump era -- remember it fondly and wonder how the next president screwed it up so badly. Meanwhile, his predecessor continues to claim it was policies that set these things in motion. What a doofus:
Obama:
if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor -- huge lie
you can't just drill your way to lower oil prices -- huge lie (I don't know if he believed that, or if that was a policy decision)
the Russians are not trying to influence the Hillary - Trump presidential campaigns
September 11, 2018, T+30: record after record after record being broken.
September 10, 2018, T+29: unless you were under the Geico rock the past week, you could not have possibly missed former President Obama taking credit for building the Trump economy. LOL. The bigger story: Trump is getting under everybody's skin / inside everyone's mind.
September 8, 2018, T+27: a footnote in history at worse, at most, a very, very short chapter, "ObamaCare."
September 7, 2018, T+26: annual wage growth highest since 2009; jobs report blows past forecasts; September 6, 2018, T+25: Senator Warren says if Trump unfit to be president, time to invoke 25th Amendment.
September 5, 2018, T+24: graphic of the day --
September 4, 2018, T+23: loss of civility in the US Senate today -- Kavanaugh -- Supreme Court nominee -- hearings begin.
September 3, 2018, T+22: Ivanka emerges as Trump's jobs czar; focus on "forgotten men and women." Posted on Labor Day. In other news, photo-cropping:
September 2, 2018, T+21: quiet Sunday. Trump will re-consider freezing federal employee pay raises. Virginia GOP at risk. LOL. As usual, Trump is doing the right thing, and he is doing it his way.
August 29, 2018, T+16: wow, Trudeau is spooked! After US-Mexico come to "broad" agreement (announced just two days ago), Trudeau who has not had a good year so far, says Canada could have a deal with the US by the end of the week. Trudeau's country has become known as the country that can't "close a deal." Four pipeline attempts: four strike outs -- Northern Gateway (killed by Trudeau); Keystone XL (killed by Trudeau's close friend Barack Obama); Enbridge Line #3 in deep trouble in Minnesota (arguing over one or two miles of route); and, TransMountain Pipeline expansion (Trudeau had to buy it and all hinges on court decision expected to be announced tomorrow).
August 28, 2018, T+15: second estimate of 2Q18 GDP -- at high end of consensus (3.8% - 4.2%) -- 4.2%.
August 28, 2018, T+14: major indices hit new record highs yesterday; one exception -- Dow -- but very, very close to it's all-time high of 26,600 or thereabouts.
August 27, 2018, T+13:
August 26, 2018, T+12: quiet.
August 25, 2018, T+11: quiet.
August 24, 2018, T+10: quiet.
August 23, 2018, T+9: remember when Obama Campaign was fined $375,000 for campaign reporting violations and no jail time. Cohen was screwed.
August 22, 2018, T+8: Market yawns despite news yesterday. Headline: US entering longest bull run ever. S&P 500 hits all-time record; extends records.
August 21, 2018, T+7: "Manafort" found guilty on 8 of 18 charges; none have to do with Trump or "Russian collusion." "Cohen" pleads guilty to two charges breaking campaign finance laws.
August 20, 2018, T+6: Quiet.
August 19, 2018, T+5: Governor Andrew Cuomo really stepped in it this past week, saying that "the United States was never that great." And that's not out of context, and it's not paraphrasing. He said that very, very clearly. The crowd's reaction was "mixed"? Mostly incredulous. Cuomo's "deplorable" moment. August 18, 2018, T+4: first former CIA director to lose his security clearance. Sounds like other "spooks" got the message. At least two said the former CIA director was "out of line" with his public comments.
August 17, 2018, T+3: President Trump revokes the security clearance of former CIA director John Brennan. It's about time. I'm looking for Trump to fire Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller sometime between now and January 3, 2019. My hunch: after Kavanaugh is confirmed.
August 15, 2018, T+1: Iran's latest tactic to save market share. Iran will cut prices for its Asian customers. Sanctions are starting to bite. Link here.
