Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Fast And Furious: Inflation Drops Month-Over-Month -- October 13, 2021

Updates

October 13, 2021: it's a bit early to tell for sure, but it appears the airlines are holding the line, requiring their employees to be vaccinated. most (?) airlines requiring vaccinations; Southwest Airlines still only "encouraging" vaccinations. Needs to be fact-checked, but that's what I think I saw on the news tonight.

Original Post

CPI: a very, very, very good report though Steve Liesman calls it a mixed bag

  • 0.2 vs 0.3% estimated, ex-food and energy
  • food: up 0.9%
  • most sectors showing some relief

Snowfall:

Not to worry: we may yet experience an "indigenous people's summer." Used to happen all the time in the 1950s and 1960s when I was growing up in Williston, though we called it something else then.

E&Ps, link here;

  • bottomed one year ago;
  • past year, market, price of shares:
    • CLR: up 301%
    • OXY: up 205%
    • Ovintiv: up 304%
    • Antero: up 421%
    • PDC: up 295%
    • Denbury: up 317%
    • some did even better;

Most ridiculous soundbite this year?

  • billionaires moving their money in $600 increments to defeat taxes -- Janet Yellen; can't make this stuff up; link here. It's on tape. 
    • makes Joe Biden look like an Einstein on the economy

Joe Biden's press secretary, link here: let's go Brandon --

  • premature shift to renewables is not causing energy crisis
  • southwest employees did not sick out over vax mandates
  • covid vax prevents spread
  • brandon knew about the french spat over subs
  • afghanistan withdrawal was a success

Jobs / JOLTS:

  • record 4.3 million workers quit their jobs in August, led by food and retail industries;
  • as bad as it was, not as bad as forecast;
  • employment vacancies fell to 10.4 million in August, a drop of almost 700,000 from July's upwardly revised 11.1 million
  • the decline was well short of market expectations for 10.96 million job postings
  • the number of those quitting hit a new series high going back to December, 2002

AirBNB:

  • hmmm? Investor's Business Daily;
  • more later, if I remember
  • quote here
  • disclaimer: I have never invested in ABNB; no plans; posted for other reasons

Inflation:

  • apparently just transitory; not to worry;
  • likely to drop to 5.35 annual rate when numbers come out for last month -- WSJ;
  • was 5.4% in June;
  • economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate the Labor Department will report the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in September from August. That is the same pace as in August and down markedly from June’s 0.9% pace

Ports:

Southwest Airlines:

Kaiser Permanente:

  • staff tired; overwhelmingly call for strike -- during worst pandemic in US history; okay;

Social security:

  • could see 6% boost in COLA; would be most in forty years -- WSJ;
  • later: it's official, a 5.9% COLA increase January 1, 2022 -- whoo-hoo.

Southern Surge:

Time to go:

Market:

  • Delta: great quarter; first profitable post-pandemic; first among US airlines; beats
    • EPS: 30 cents vs 17 cents
    • $9.15 billion vs $8.4 billion
    • guidance: modest 4Q21 loss due to fuel costs;
      • time to add a fuel surcharge
  • Blackrock: beats -- a blowout quarter
    • EPS: $5.05 vs. $4.94; not a big difference but goes from a "4-handle" to a "5-handle"
    • revenue: $10.95 billion vs 9.35 billion; rose despite waiver of some fees
    • outstanding quarter in almost all segments
    • card spending up significantly
    • sees "long transition" out of Covid -- will take much longer than expected
    • working hard to transition to "green" revolution; led the way on banks deserting fossil fuel investment;
  • JP Morgan 3Q21 results -- beats
    • EPS: $3.74 vs $3.00
    • $30.44 billion vs $29.76 billion
    • credit card spend: up 25%
    • first state to have branches in all lower 48 states: growing branches rather than trend to shrink branch numbers;

UN tires of Greta?

Jon:

Fossil fuel investment, coal is dead! Long live coal:

Energy crisis:

Emissions:

  • Germany: spending $36 billion / year on renewables yet their emissions haven't gone down since 2009;
  • USA emissions have fallen; mainly due to fracking; link here;

UK grid on the brink, link to ZeroHedge via Oilprice:

  • new UK law to mandate home EV chargers to switch off during peak hours;
  • soon: all hours will be peak hours;

And, finally, how could we not mention Covid?

  • rising Covid-19 numbers returning to pre-vaccine levels in Minnesota; hospitalizations reach a high for this year year; link here;
  • are they playing professional and college football in Minnesota? Asking for a friend.
  • Minnesota has a test positivity rate of 8.3% -- highest in the vaccine era
  • a level of hospitalizations not seen since first jabs administered in mid-December, 2020
  • more than 75% of eligible Minnesotans age 12 and over have received the vaccine
  • nine of ten newly reported deaths: seniors -- despite a vaccination rate above 93% in that age group
  • Minnesota: 7th worst among US states
  • hard-hit states, like Florida, Louisiana: rates have dropped to among the lowest in the nation
  • all this data consistent with my thoughts on the matter;
  • but no one seems to be asking the right question(s) though the Minnesota, Florida, Louisiana experience probably answering some of those unanswered questions 
  • unbiased data here;
  • link for graph below:

Anyway, enough of this: time to make some French toast and bacon. Yes, bacon. I think bacon is 60% higher this year than last year but I'm eating 60% less so it's a wash.  

*******************************
The Wave

Olivia, October, 2021

$10,000 fine for entering this area without a permit. Enforced. 

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