Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Look At What Statoil Is Doing -- Look At What Iraq Is Doiing -- June 13, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs532875185185

RBN Energy: the series continues -- Appalachia gas supply vs takeaway capacity.

Bakken takeaway: pipelines can now handle all of the current Bakken crude oil output. But that doesn't mean the complete end of CBR.

Another DAPL? TransCanada (think Keystone XL) asked US State Dept to pause its review of an oil pipeline that would originate in northwest North Dakota and carry oil to Canada. Data points, from The Bismarck Tribune:
  • Upland Pipeline
  • would originate 15 miles southwest of Williston
  • 126 miles in North Dakota; crossing border near Flaxton, ND
  • would carry Bakken crude ot Canadian markets, as well as the US East Coast
  • would connect with TransCanada's Energy East Pipeline
  • pause requested to put review in sync with Canada's review of TransCanada's proposed Energy East Pipeline System
Under-the-water minerals: ND attorney general "the new law" doesn't apply to contested minerals west of the US Highway 85 bridge, known as the Wilkinson case; McKenzie County Farmer.

Many, Many Stories Today -- Quickly

Saudis miffed: OPEC oil output jumps 336,000 bopd in May on increases in Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq. This may or may not have been a surprise to those watching this but it is not helping OPEC / non-OPEC attempt to re-balance. Add this to the increase in US production.

On the other hand, from Reuters: signs of US inventory declines, lower Saudi exports. Data points:
  • Saudi Arabia says it will cut crude oil allocations to Asia in July by 300,000 bopd (compare with previous story)
  • deeper cuts than the cuts in June
  • sources said volumes to the US would be cut by about 35% in July
  • Genscape forecasts a draw of more than 1.8 million bbls at the Cushing
  • analysts suggested last week's 5% plunge in oil prices was excessive; the build of 3.3 million bbls last week was an anomaly
This will be very, very interesting to follow. We'll know a bit more tomorrow.

Peak oil? What peak oil? From Reuters via Rigzone -- Statoil plans to more than triple its production in Brazil; wants to become sole operator for the entire Carcara discovery (among the world's biggest in recent years)
  • Statoil has invested more than $10 billion in Brazil
  • Statoil: largest foreign offshore operator
  • Peregrino heavy oilfield 85 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro is the biggest Statoil opperates outside Norway 
  • Peregrino: producing 90,000 bopd; Statoil accounts for 60% of that
  • by 2030, Statoil's production from the field expected to more than triple
  • phase 2 development is expected to add 250 million bbls of reserves at a break-even price of below $45 a barrel, down from an estimate of $70/bbl
TSLA: increasing chatter that Tesla will miss its self-imposed deadline to ramp up in July. Shares up almost $8 in pre-market trading.

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