Monday, February 20, 2017

LNG Import Demand -- 2010 - 2013 -- Shell -- February 20, 2017

Source: Shell.

The most interesting data point at the source: EGYPT will overtake India in demand growth.


Economic growth:
  • Area A: fairly stagnant compared to rest of world
  • Area B: economic growth driven by China
  • Area C: economic growth driven by India
  • Area D: this entire segment is "northwest Europe" -- economic stagnation (maybe even "decline") relative to rest of world
  • Area E: driven by mandate for ships to switch to "clean fuel"
Area B: a most interesting grouping of regions -- US, Mexico, Canada, China, eastern Europe, Mediterranean (north Africa, southern Europe)

Miscellaneous:
  • look at the x-axis: from 100 to 450 -- that's huge -- only 30 years on the y-axis
  • LNG imports doubled in the most recent decade, 2000 - 2010, from 100 to 200, majority in western world, and China
  • Area C will be the big driver for the next two decades (think India, Indonesia, Malaysia)
  • it looks like the world, based on LNG, is being divided into three regions:
    • the west + China: Area B
    • the Far East (excluding China): Area A
    • the Near East and the Indian subcontinent: Area C
Note: The most interesting data point at the linked source: EGYPT will overtake India in demand growth.

Other sites:

Turkey: it seems that Turkey is completed dependent on foreign LNG, mostly Russian:

Turkey: from Reuters, February 22, 2017:
Turkey must increase its energy production from domestic sources to above 50 percent this year and above two thirds within a decade, Energy Minister Berat Albayrak said on Wednesday at an industry event.

Turkey is largely dependent on imports for its energy needs.

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