How Long Is It Taking To Complete a Bakken Well?

Updates

November 23, 2012: the post below is out of date with regard to how long it takes to reach total depth for a Bakken well. See question #27 at "FAQs." Currently, operators can reach total depth in less than 20 days; some operators have reached total depth in less than 15 days even for a long horizontal, and there is at least one case in which the operator reached total depth in 8 days (I don't remember if that was a short lateral or a long lateral). Completing the well/fracking is a different issue. Fracking can be accomplished in one to three days, but fracking generally does not occur immediately after drilling is completed. There can be a gap of several days to several months.

Original Post

I covered this issue about two years ago on this blog at the FAQs tab. I will have to update the answer.  Five things have changed:

• The horizontals are longer
• Companies are reaching total depth much more quickly
• The fracking backlog is more severe
• Fracking takes less time, depending on the method
• Winter weather is having a greater impact than some expected

Without a serious, statistical study, but just using a "gut" impression based on following the Bakken day in and day out, this is how I would answer. This should be taken as "conversational" and not legally, scientifically, or otherwise accurate.

First, again, the question: how long does it take to complete a Bakken horizontal well, from the date it is spudded to the date the IP test is posted at the NDIC site?

The time to drill to total depth (TD) will vary whether is it a short lateral (one section, slightly less than one mile horizontal) or a long lateral (two sections, slightly less than two miles horizontal). I do not have that information. Most wells are now long horizontals. I believe the record for a Bakken horizontal was fourteen days (probably a short lateral), but the usual length of time seems to be about 24 days to as long as 30 days. They can frac within a couple of days after reaching TD, and depending on the method and number of stages, fracking can be completed within three to five days. Once the fracking is complete, they can measure the flow. In the "old days," some companies used an average production rate over seven days to determine the IP, but now it appears most producers are calculating the IP based on 24-hour flowback achieved early after the well is fracked. So, 14 days + 3 days + 2 days, I suppose one could see an IP within 20 days of a Bakken well being spudded.

More likely, 30 days + 5 days + 5 days, one gets an IP within about 40 days of a Bakken well being spudded.

However, more and more it appears that in good weather, there is a wait of several weeks to get a well spudded, and the IP might not be calculated  until one to three months later. Thus, from the time the well is spudded, one may not see an IP until four months later.

In severe weather, the fracking backlog will be worse, pushing the time period out another month or so.

Larger producers have their own frack teams and some of these companies say they can keep up with the wells that have reached TD. Smaller producers do not have their own frack teams. In addition, smaller producers will be at the back of the queue when there is a backlog for fracking.

Some time ago, EOG stated its policy was not to frac the Bakken during the winter months (November to February, inclusive). I don't know if that is still their policy. It certainly creates challenges for a company that is required to produce quarterly results.

The NDIC doesn't post information on wells until they have come off the confidential list. Not all wells are on the confidential list, but it's my feeling that most are.

Bottom line:

• If the well is a gusher, and the producer wants to promote the company, one could see an IP published in a press release within a month of a well being spudded.
• However, it appears that the standard for IPs being publicized are closer to four months due to a number of factors (weather, fracking backlog). Some are taking as long as six months. (See EOG policy above, for example.)

One caveat: even at the end of the six-month confidential period, some producers will report "DRL" only for "initial production." For some reason, they have not calculated the IP for a particular well. However, production data becomes available at the end of the confidential period.

This posting should be read as "conversational" answer to someone asking me the question with no expectation that it is entirely accurate. There are too many variables, but for newbies it should give folks an idea of the time line for a Bakken well.

If you have read this far, one more little goodie: this may be the record for bringing a Bakken well on line one year ago. It only took 13 days for the "big rig" to reach TD, though it was preceded by the "smaller rig" for surface casing, and there was the usual time gap between the two rigs.

I would appreciate any comments, particularly where I have made errors. I will update/correct the post.