Director's Cut, November, 2019, Data

Updates

Later, 5:35 p.m. CT: for the past month, the shale nay-sayers, led by the folks over at oilprice have been suggesting that shale operators are working through their DUC inventory to save costs. That has been a common theme over at twitter also: evidence that shale is in deep trouble is the fact that operators are working their way through their DUC inventory. They rarely post numbers. Apparently nationwide the number of DUCs decreased 10% month-over-month. What these nay-sayers don't tell us is whether it's oil or natural gas DUCs. I don't know either; I haven't seen the data but my hunch is that it is natural gas. 

So, I was eagerly waiting to see the Bakken inactive well / DUC data for November, 2019. 

Here are those numbers:

Wells off line, to end of November, 2019: 2,645 -- about "average" for the Bakken -- 2,568 in October; an increase of 77 or a 3% increase month-over-month.

• DUCs: 919 (up 34 from the 885 in October)
• inactive well count: 1,726 (up 43 from 1,683 in October)

So, all that "talk" about operators working through their DUC inventory did not include the Bakken. In fact, both the number of DUCs and the number of inactive wells both rose, albeit not by much. That, to me, was an incredibly important data point. Despite the number of wells off line/DUCs actually increased, North Dakota production came very, very close to another all-time crude oil production record.

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The Director's Cut

Data For November, 2019 

North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Crude oil production:

• November, 2019, preliminary:1,515,404 bopd
• revenue forecast: 1.4 million bopd
• October, 2019, final: 1,517,936 bopd -- all-time high
• September, 2019, final, 1,443,980 bopd -- very, very wet September that impacted oil fields
• August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd (previous all-time high)
• July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd (previous all-time high)
• June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
• month-over-month, bbls: -2,532 bopd  (November-October)
• month-over-month, percent: - 0.17%  (November-October)

Gas production:

• November, 2019, preliminary: 3,133,939 MCF/day; new all-time high on a per-day basis; all time on a monthly basis, October, 2019)
• 83% capture
• October, 2019, final: 3,070,616 MCF/day
• 81% capture
• September, 2019, final: 2,946,391 MCF/day (note -- fell below the 3-billion threshold previously reported)
• August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
• July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
• June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day

BOE, September, preliminary:

• natural gas:  3,133,9393 MCF/day =  522,236 boe
• crude oil:1,515,404 bopd
• total boe, preliminary for November, 2019: 2,037,640 boepd
• total boe for October, 2019: 2,029,620 boepd
• month-over-month increase/decrease: 8,019 boepd
• month-over-month: an increase of  0.04%

Producing wells:

• November, 2019, preliminary:16,090
• October, 2019, final: 16,169
• September, 2019, final: 16,115
• August, 2019, final: (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
• July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
• June, 2019, 15,752

Permitting:

• December, 2019: 67
• November, 2019: 79
• October, 2019: 126
• September, 2019: 92
• August, 2019: 127
• July, 2019: 141
• June, 2019: 127

Rig count:

• Today: 55 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
• November: 55
• October: 56
• September: 61
• August: 62
• July: 57
• June: 63

Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

Completions:

• November, 2019, preliminary: 92 (preliminary) 
• October, 2019, final: 102 (revised)
• September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
• August, 2019, final: 102
• July, 2019, final: 137
• June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
• May, 2019, 113 (final)

Gas capture:

• statewide, captured: 83% (81% reported last month)
• statewide, captured: 
• November, 2019: 2,591,250 MCF/day (preliminary)
• October, 2019:  2,524,405 MCF/day
• September, 2019: 2,429,487 MCF/day
• previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
• FBIR Bakken:
• November, 2019: 81%
  October, 2019, captured: 70% (was 79% in September)(75% reported two months ago, August, 2019)

Off line, to end of November, 2019: 2,645 -- about "average" for the Bakken -- 2,568 in October; an increase of 77 or a 3% increase

• DUCs: 919 (up 34 from the 885 in October)
• inactive well count: 1,726 (up 43 from 1,683 in October)
• wells off line for operational reasons are tracked here;