EVs -- The Harsh Reality -- May 27, 2020

Locator: 23000A.

If you have time to read only one report on EVs today, the KPMG report would be the one. The report will download on your desktop as a pdf, but it might be hard to find. In the last paragraph at this link the pdf link is buried:

In our paper we discuss how automakers can adjust EV plans to conform to the near-term reality of the market.

We do not dispute that a long-term shift to electric drivetrains is under way.

Like other industry analysts, we expect that barriers to EV sales could fall away in the 2030s.

To prepare, automakers of all kinds need to build the capabilities now to design, manufacture and sell EVs.

But if the cost of learning includes launching dozens of models that can never break even, the benefits of EVs may be pushed farther into the future.

First, many companies won’t take that risk and might rethink EVs altogether. And those that push on now and suffer the financial consequences may no longer be in shape to contribute to the advancement of EVs and compete in the mass market when it does materialize. Only by finding a profitable route into the EV market now can automakers make their contribution to mitigating climate change in 2050.

Wow, reading that closely and reading in between the lines suggests that the Chinese auto manufacturers who generally don't respect patents (at least that's the worldview of many) could do very, very well by simply waiting and stealing the technology in 2030. 

The URL for this link: https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2020/ev-plan-b.html -- will download as a pdf.

Re-posting.

KPMG warned against an EV glut in early 2020 and that was before the corona virus pandemic. One can get to the full KPMG report. The report has a copyright date of 2020, but the exact date of publication was not provided, as far as I can tell. Because they provide 2019 data and do not mention the corona virus, it appears this report was released near the end of January, 2020.

It's a great report, and recommended reading. In fact, I will re-post the links in a stand-alone post to make it easier to access.

This caught my attention, page 6 of 14, exhibit 2, from the report:

Based on our analysis of battery, fuel, and other costs, we conclude that ICE vehicles will make more economic sense than EVs for personal use for many years to come.

This assumes no unforeseen breakthrough that dramatically and suddenly reduces battery costs and no radical changes in U.S. policy to switch consumers to electric cars.

As a result, we anticipate that EVs will remain a small factor in U.S. personal-use auto sales into the next decade, if not longer.

We estimate that in 2030 total EV sales will be 1.1 million to 1.8 million or about 7 to 12 percent of the market for personal-use vehicles.

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Putting All Those Amazon Boxes To Good Use

Sophia and I are having a blast using old Amazon boxes to make structures for her "Polly Pocket" dolls. The first thing we made was a house with attached garage.

She drew the plan on the box and then I cut out the doors, windows, garage doors, etc. We used screws, bolts and nuts, and hooks (for hanging pictures) as door knobs, etc, for the structures.

Sophia painted the structures and used other media to decorate the "buildings."

Here is an example of the Polly Pocket VW van pulling out of the garage. It should be noted that the VW van is powered by a conventional internal combustion engine.

Based on the number of Amazon boxes stacking up around her house, we should be able to re-construct a suburb of Dallas, TX, or if we really want to go wild, a model of NYC.

By the way, the white strip of paper down the side of the garage in the photo above: a temporary stairway to the roof where Polly Pocket can sunbathe, practicing social distancing, of course.