Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Three New Permits -- May 27, 2020


Later, 7:48 p.m. CT: I accidentally "rejected" a comment. Once rejected, it's impossible to retrieve and post it from the individual who sent it. Fortunately the comment is not lost, and I have re-posted it under my name in the comments.

Original Post 
Corona virus (this is all difficult for millennial journalists to report and/or comprehend, see below*):
  • headlines today: more cases. Well, of course, there are more cases. Testing is increasing across the nation
    • what will be interesting is if the number of new cases or the rate of increase actually decreases despite increased testing -- now that would get my attention
    • headlines like that suggest to me that journalists misunderstood the concept of or the reason for "flattening the curve"
  • new wrinkle I've not see anyone discuss: best commonly used metric, although it, too, has significant problems: deaths per capita (deaths per million population)
    • the denominator was fixed from the beginning; e.g., statistics for Michigan assumed a population of 10 million for the state of Michigan; that remains fixed. On the day Michigan recorded its first corona-virus-related death, the death rate was 1 / 10 million or 0.1 per million
    • now, however, every new death is added to previous total but denominator (population of Michigan does not change)
    • so, if Michigan now has 550 total deaths, the death rate will be 500 / 10 million
  • when the death rate of Michigan hits 1,000 (as I'm sure it will, then the death rate will be 1,000 / 10 million (or double what it is now, which, of course, is inaccurate)
  • I could be wrong on this; it seems this would be an obvious error that needs to be managed but right now, that's how I'm reading it
* It is my impression that math is difficult for millennial journalists: this one video provides a great example: a millennial generation that is mathematically challenged; the interviewee is a member of the NYT editorial board, in other words, she represents the "cream of the crop":
Re-posting: by the way, Brian Williams could claim he knew this all along, simply stringing his guest out -- he, the straight man; she, the comedienne.

Really Bad Math, Brian Williams.
I never get tired of watching this 
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1165655029

Three new permits, #37599 - 37601, inclusive --
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has permits for three Littlefield  wells in lot 1 section 2-152-92, Sanish oil field, all 300' FEL and all about 360' FNL
    • it appears these wells will run in a southeasterly direction, "among" the the very good Whiting Lacey wells;
That was all.


  1. I accidentally "rejected" a comment. Once rejected, it's impossible to retrieve and post it from the individual who sent it. Fortunately the comment is not lost, and I have re-posted it under my name below. Again, this is from a reader, not from me.

    From the reader:

    I'm not sure I follow:

    1 death per 10 million is .1 per million
    550 per 10 million is 55 per million
    1000 per 10 million is 100 per million

    I don't see the issue. Nevertheless, New York is around 1,500 deaths per million which is the highest death rate in the world. San Marino is the highest outside the US, and they have a grand total population of 34,000!

    If you look at the specific numbers for Manhattan, Queens and the other Burroughs (plus several counties in NJ), it much worse than that.

    1. You are correct, and the "raw" numbers will get worse. But what concerns me is that the "per capita" rate will also increase as the numerator rises, and the denominator remains unchanged.

      The millennial journalists will not understand this. That is my concern.

    2. Despite things getting "so much worse" in NYC area as the reader suggests, it is my understanding that Governor Cuomo is now relaxing lock down guidelines and starting to "re-open" the state.