Monday, June 18, 2018

Did North Dakota Just Set An All-Time BOEPD Production Record? -- April, 2018 Data

I'll let folks fact check me on this.

Disclaimer: I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Take everything I say in this post with a grain of salt.

First, go back to the director's cut with the most recent data, April, 2018, data.

April, 2018, data suggests "we" came very, very close to setting a new all time crude oil production record in April, missing the record by 2,500 bopd or about 0.21%. That was missing the record by 2,500 bbls on total production of over 1.224 million bbls of crude oil. Per day.

However, if one adds in the natural gas production it is very, very clear North Dakota set a new all-time BOE production record of 1,598,948 boepd. Staggering.

Someone can fact check me on that, but for now, I will use that as the BOE all-time production record for North Daktoa, going forward.

Some other observations:
  • 374,000 boepd natural gas production / 1,598,948 boe total production = 23%
  • 374,000 boepd natural gas production / 1,224,948 bopd production = 31%
  • new Bakken wells, first six months of production: about a 94% / 6% crude oil / natural gas split
  • as wells mature, crude oil declines but natural gas production may increase
Other observations:
  • reminder, for newbies: the greatest production from Bakken wells occurs in the first six months of production
  • in April, there were over 900 DUCs (wells drilled to depth but not completed/fracked)
  • had three more DUCs been brought on line in April: 90,000 bbls of oil over 30 days =  3,000 bopd would have been added to total production, setting an all-time record (preliminary data)
  • in addition, in April, there were over 1,500 wells on inactive status (many Bakken wells -- and some very good Bakken wells -- are taken off line when neighboring wells are being fracked; they can be off line anywhere from a few days to a few months)
  • back in 2014, there were in excess of 175 active rigs drilling in the Bakken; in April, 2018, less than 60 active rigs drilling in the Bakken -- wow, staggering
Bottom line: the April, 2018, data was much more surprising than a lot of folks realize.

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