Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Demand Destruction of Gasoline -- Graph Worth 10,000 Words --

Don sent me this. I have not followed US gasoline consumption in quite some time.

This graph (linked) blows me away.

With all the good news about the economy, the unemployment rate dropping, and the price of oil, I never would have expected this.

When you get to the link, scroll to the bottom of the page to see gasoline consumption in the US since March, 2010.

This is a very troubling graphic. This is not indicative of a recovering economy. It is not indicative of an improving employment picture. The drop-off is not due to all those Volts being sold.

If this is due at all to the price of gasoline going up another 20 cents or so, I hate to think what the graph will look like when gasoline goes up another 60 cents this spring as predicted by some pundits. It will be interesting to see if CarpeDiem.com comments on this graph.

6 comments:

  1. Self sufficiency requires both increased production and conservation. Remember we are not just saving for sake of reducing imports but also for generations to come who might need these fuel sources.
    As an exploration geologist uncovering Bakken resources I am also an environmentalist as I suspect most geo types are. Yes I drive a field truck but have has two Prius and think they are incredible. And yes I test drove a volt and think it is better yet, albeit subsidized.
    This retort is a non event 15 yrs from now

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    1. Great comment; I agree 100 percent.

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    2. Bruce there is a graph at Dept of Transportation DOT that is excellent for tracking gas demand its called the Vehicle Miles Driven report. It has a wonderful data base that shows the changes over many years.

      DOT drags its feet updating it, us systemologists think its a useful product and could be a featured leak,to clients before making public release. a lot of hedges can be rationalized by this input.

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    3. Link?

      The link I have to tracking gasoline demand seems to be just fine.

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    4. http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/11novtvt/11novtvt.pdf

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    5. After you sent me note regarding "US miles traveled," some thoughts occurred?

      What is the methodology of collecting this data? I assume it's in the link above but haven't had time to read it completely.

      If this is an estimate based on surveys, extrapolations, lots of room for error.

      Patterns of driving will change for reasons other than just price of gasoline/diesel. Think internet retail (no driving).

      I guess it depends what the data is used for.

      For me, gasoline demand is most interesting, but no longer just US data but data to include China is very, very important.

      Less miles being driven: could this mean less is needed to maintain roads, bridges? Fewer highways need to be built, widened?

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