Another Take On American Energy Independence -- You Have To Watch These Guys Like A Kestrel

I believe I referenced this study by BP earlier, that the US could be energy independent by 2030.

A reader sent me a link to a more expansive analysis of this study.

I love how it starts out:

Oil and gas company BP recently released its annual Energy Outlook and many of its projections should be viewed with concern.

That's the lede. I immediately tried to find out who wrote it; it's hard to tell; from Yahoo News, most likely a Harvard undergrad, sitting in Starbucks waiting for her next class to start.  As one gets into it, it certainly doesn't seem to have been read or proofed by an energy analyst.

Wall Street Journal editors would have led with "... and many of its projections will offer huge opportunities for entrepreneurs while improving the quality of life for Americas."

So some data points from the article:

Wind and solar will continue to contribute less than 10 percent of global energy output despite growing at least 8 percent a year between now and 2030. [Comment: I've made that point many, many times -- renewables have a niche, and a lot of folks will get very rich, but as far as making a significant global difference, it's not gonna happen. The numbers don't work. With the price of natural gas in free fall, one wonders if the "ten percent" estimate is too high. XOM first provided the data about six years -- saying the numbers don't add up for renewables.]

Carbon emissions will increase 28 percent by 2030 -- not 26 percent, not 31 percent, but 28 percent. I'm impressed they can get the numbers so exact. The writer says this is a dire forecast for those trying to reverse the effects of climate change. [Reverse the effects? Can anyone tell me what the effects have been to date? There has been no global warming for the past 15 years, not since 1997.]

China will import as much as 80 percent of its oil needs.

Euope will import as much as 94 percent of its oil needs. It should be noted that France, part of Europe, bans fracking. Its Paris Basin has been compared to the Bakken. And Europe will import 80 percent of its natural gas. Russia is lovin' it.

Meanwhile, the US could become almost entirely energy independent by 2030. [The writer actually says "... almost entirely energy dependent by 2030..." which begs the question, dependent on whom or what? That must have been a Freudian slip. And another clue the writer is not an energy analyst.

And then this crazy shorthand: "Natural gas production, otherwise known as 'fracking,' has come ...."

I did not know that "natural gas production" is now known as "fracking."  Fracking is a technology to produce natural gas, and oil, for that matter, but it certainly is not "natural gas production." And somehow the writer immediately follows "natural gas production" and "fracking" with this: "The Obama administration recently gave a stinging rebuke to the industry by rejecting the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline..." The Keystone XL has nothing to do with natural gas production OR fracking.

It was nice to see that the writer reaffirmed that the president said the US has a 100-year supply of natural gas (which is WAY incorrect) and would provide 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade, never mind the 20,000 jobs we won't see this year because of the stinging rebuke he gave to the industry by rejecting the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline.

As noted at the top, wow, you have watch these East Coast writers like a kestrel.