Do you suppose Dr Leigh Price's estimates will eventually be realized? Didn't he say the Bakken contained an average of 400 Billion Barrels and he felt ultimately 50% of that would be produced? If you took 200 billion barrels and spread it out over 200 years which is an awful long time in the history of the oil industry there would have to be 1 billion barrels of production per year. On a per day basis that would be an average of 2,739,726.027 barrels of oil per day for 200 years if my South Dakota math is correct.
Your math is correct, at least as far as I can tell.
Some interesting statistics: I think everyone agrees that "we" should be able to get 2 to 3 percent of the oil in place (OIP) out of the ground. There are some oilman saying that "we" are already getting 6 to 8 percent of the OIP out of the ground (though their estimates of OIP Is significantly less than Leigh Price's estimates).
Having said that, if Leigh Price is correct: 400 billion barrels. And if Harold Hamm is correct, 24 billion barrels in a presentation; 20 billion barrels in news report: 24/400 billion = six (6) percent.
Analysts think ND can get to 500,000 bopd by end of this year. Although 2 million bopd is a far stretch from 500,000, it's not inconceivable, but to get there in my investing lifetime would probably require a Manhattan-style development project and sense of urgency.
For those interested, the original Dr Leigh Price referenced above can be found at this link:
http://www.undeerc.org/price/TextVersion.pdf
For the "413 billion oil-in-place"" figure, go to page 238 of that text. The figure may be present on other pages, also. I do not recall Dr Price estimating percent of oil recoverable; that would change based on technology.
Do you suppose Dr Leigh Price's estimates will eventually be realized? Didn't he say the Bakken contained an average of 400 Billion Barrels and he felt ultimately 50% of that would be produced? If you took 200 billion barrels and spread it out over 200 years which is an awful long time in the history of the oil industry there would have to be 1 billion barrels of production per year. On a per day basis that would be an average of 2,739,726.027 barrels of oil per day for 200 years if my South Dakota math is correct.
ReplyDeleteYour math is correct, at least as far as I can tell.
ReplyDeleteSome interesting statistics: I think everyone agrees that "we" should be able to get 2 to 3 percent of the oil in place (OIP) out of the ground. There are some oilman saying that "we" are already getting 6 to 8 percent of the OIP out of the ground (though their estimates of OIP Is significantly less than Leigh Price's estimates).
Having said that, if Leigh Price is correct: 400 billion barrels. And if Harold Hamm is correct, 24 billion barrels in a presentation; 20 billion barrels in news report: 24/400 billion = six (6) percent.
Analysts think ND can get to 500,000 bopd by end of this year. Although 2 million bopd is a far stretch from 500,000, it's not inconceivable, but to get there in my investing lifetime would probably require a Manhattan-style development project and sense of urgency.
For those interested, the original Dr Leigh Price referenced above can be found at this link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.undeerc.org/price/TextVersion.pdf
For the "413 billion oil-in-place"" figure, go to page 238 of that text. The figure may be present on other pages, also. I do not recall Dr Price estimating percent of oil recoverable; that would change based on technology.