Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Bidenomics -- Walmart -- Chicken -- WTI -- The Bakken And The Halo Effect -- December 6, 2023

Locator: 46245ECON.

WTI: plunged today. 

My first thought -- the US economy will likely slow significantly in 1H24, possibly even a short, shallow recession, but more importantly, the global economy could be in much worse shape, and, if so, there's going to be a huge free-for-all among all OPEC+ countries which now informally includes the US.
We could be looking at a huge glut of oil -- or the capacity to produce a huge glut of oil -- come next spring. This plunge in the price of WTI may not be transitory.
Re-posting:

Walmart: CNBC interview excellent this morning. 

The word “deflation” used over and over. Not inflation.
Chicken less expensive this year than last year. [Be definition: deflation; not disinflation.]
Not worried about recession talk. Simply an excellent interview. No mention of or questions about shrinkage, Generative AI and automation huge. Very upbeat. Next hour, interview continues. Great interviewer, Sara Eisen. Of course, I’m biased. Still my favorite store.
Remodeled Supercenter driving larger footprint. Stores turning into fulfillment centers. As big as these stores are, footprint, they're not big enough. A technology story. Campbell’s up 6% in early trading. WMT CEO alluded to this.

Notice the CEO's comments regarding the price of chicken.

From Walmart today: chicken, $1.14 / pound; one whole chicken for $5.

Now, FRED, also from today, updated as of the end of November.

And turkey? Still 98 cents / pound at Walmart:

Butterball: $1.28 / pound.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: : $69.62. WTI plunges despite EIA report today reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by a fairly significant 4.6 million bbls -- US crude oil in storage 1% below the five-year average.

  • OPEC in disarray; each country to make its own decision; Saudi no longer in control;
  • COP28
  • strong dollar
  • in the US, crude oil in storage trending up, and trending toward 30 days —> more than four weeks supply.

Active rigs: 40

Six new permits, #40376 - #40381, inclusive:

  • Operators: MRO (5); Liberty Resources
  • Fields: Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Cottonwood (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Liberty Resources has a permit for a K&L Hegstad South well, SESW 03-158-92; 
      • to be sited 329 FSL and 1353 FWL;
    • MRO has permits for five wells (Becker USA, Hultberg USA, Humble USA, Spaulding USA, Thelma USA), SESW 33-152-93, 
      • to be sited between 215 FSLand 297 FSL and between 1622 FWL and 1759 FWL;

 Seven produucing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39370, 2,615, MRO, Deuce 21-29TFH,
  • 39335, 800, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,
  • 39460, 1,231, CLR, Hegler 4-13H,
  • 39326, 317, Hunt Oil, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 3,
  • 39626, 1,036, WPX, State of ND 10-3H1,
  • 39166, 926, WPX, Pennington 16-15HA,
  • 39458, 1,232, CLR, Arthur 4-12H,

Wells of interest:

  • 17064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 538K 9/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202330204372040126234182431808763
BAKKEN9-2023302663426543364392263422230302
BAKKEN8-202328139351386640144127051260047
BAKKEN7-2023820552044223542784274823
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023412526679263125111
BAKKEN1-202331128412786122876253754

  • 23699, 1,374, MRO, C.O. 34-20H, Bailey, t11/12; cum 407K9/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2023312045820457369142081120441322
BAKKEN9-2023301818118177515061681016543222
BAKKEN8-202329160171597060777144951437473
BAKKEN7-2023311561149186849829699
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023724437912832224118
BAKKEN1-202331114511266321459110064
  • 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 459K 9/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2023311594315938411001840418075286
BAKKEN9-2023301283112824571261354813330181
BAKKEN8-202328100361008246841103201023352
BAKKEN7-2023171361313533830991350313317128
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-2023311336139667026962286112
BAKKEN2-2023281244123657324061943187
BAKKEN1-2023311181109956723341754301
BAKKEN12-2022279619854391910159596

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.