20% Tax On All Mexican Imports? -- January 26, 2017 -- Hardball With Donald J Trump

By now, I'm sure everyone in the western hemisphere has heard that President Trump is considering slapping a 20% tariff on all Mexican goods imported into the US.

I completely missed this one; Bloomberg didn't. Via Twitter: this would be a "huge gift" for the Canadian oil patch. What country just submitted a new permit application for the Keystone XL?

Something tells me the President of Mexico is going to beg to have the meeting with President Trump re-scheduled.

From the Bloomberg link:

• tax could make Mexican oil less competitive versus Canadian
• proposal comes days after Trump revived Keystone XL
• the proposal would apply to countries with which the US has a trade deficit, which would "seemingly" exempt Canada; the US ran a surplus of nearly $12 billion Canada in 2015
• Canadian heavy oil competes with Mexican oil in the US refining market
• in October, 2016:
• Canada: 3.24 million bbls to the US
• Mexico: 555,000 bbls to the US
• could it also apply to Saudi Arabia? US has a trade deficit with KSA to the tune of $31 billion
• Western Canadian Select crude oil priced in Alberta: $40.28 (today)
• Mexican Maya sold in the US for $46.50 (today)

NOTE: unlikely to happen. 

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US Crude Oil Imports

Link here. 
Source, Monthly (October, 2016) in thousands of bbls/month (rounded)

• all countries: 300,000 
• OPEC: 100,000
• Iraq: 16,000
• Saudi Arabia: 32,000
• Venezuela: 23,000
• Non-OPEC: 200,000
• Canada: 112,000
• Mexico: 20,000

Back-of-the-envelope:

• Mexico: 20,000,000 bbs/month = 650,000 bbls/day
• Canada: monthly record -- 127,444,000 bbls in January, 2016 = 4.1 million bopd
• $53 x 1.20 =  $64/bbl

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Mexico Crude Oil Exports To US

Thousand bbls/month: