Active rigs:
| 10/29/2015 | 10/29/2014 | 10/29/2013 | 10/29/2012 | 10/29/2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 69 | 190 | 182 | 183 | 200 |
RBN Energy: Enbridge Montreal Line Reversal Likely to Squeeze Bakken Crude Supply.
Delays to the Enbridge Sandpiper project bringing greater volumes of Bakken crude onto the Enbridge Mainline system at Superior, WS threaten to limit the supply of crude to feed refineries in Quebec when Enbridge’s Line 9B reversal project comes online in November 2015. The market impact could push crude prices higher in North Dakota.
Today we discuss the crude supply picture and possible impact when Line 9B opens up.
In Episode 1 we explained the somewhat tortuous path that crude oil has to travel to get to the origin of Enbridge’s Line 9B at Westwood, Ontario – via Line 5 that runs across the top of Lake Michigan or via Lines 78 and 6B that deliver crude northeast from Flanagan, IL to Sarnia, Ontario.
The predominantly light crude oil that Line 9B will deliver to refineries in Quebec Province was expected to mostly come from the North Dakota Williston Basin (Bakken) as well as some synthetic light crude processed from oil sands bitumen in Alberta. We pointed out that Enbridge plans to deliver light crude to Line 9B appear to rely on additional Bakken crude volumes that will flow onto their system from North Dakota at Superior, WS once the 225 Mb/d Sandpiper pipeline comes online in 2017. However, delays to Sandpiper (originally expected online early in 2016) mean that committed shippers on Line 9B may initially struggle to source adequate supplies to meet their take or pay arrangements with Enbridge.
In the paragraphs below, we consider the existing crude diet of the refineries that Line 9B will feed in Quebec and then assess the market impact of limited crude supply before Sandpiper comes online.
The first of the two Quebec refineries that the Line 9B reversal is primarily designed to feed is the 137 Mb/d Suncor plant in Montreal. This refinery currently runs on a diet of crude supplied from four sources according to the company’s 2014 financial statements. The first source is rail – Suncor has a 36 Mb/d rail unloading terminal at the refinery that received an average of 33 Mb/d in 2014 (described as non-proprietary inland crude – likely light Bakken crude from North Dakota or Saskatchewan). The second source is East Coast light conventional Canadian crude - probably from offshore Newfoundland production fields (23 Mb/d). Next came 79 Mb/d of “other light conventional crude” that is likely imported to Montreal either from the East Coast by tanker along the St. Lawrence River or by pipeline on the Portland-Montreal pipeline (PMPL – more on this route and the St. Lawrence in a minute).
The fourth source of crude for the Montreal refinery is about 21 Mb/d of heavy and sour conventional crude that is likely also imported from the East Coast or via the PMPL. Suncor will be able to continue using any of these routes to source crude after Line 9B opens but expects to eliminate imports – meaning they wish to source as much as 100 Mb/d from the new pipeline.Much, much more at the link.
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Earnings Today
COP
- ConocoPhillips: Q3 EPS of -$0.38 in-line.
- Revenue of $16.05B (+24.2% Y/Y) beats by $7.94B. (this may be an error; was not in the corrected Seeking Alpha update)
- Press release here.
- AP story here.
- On a per-share basis, the Deerfield, Illinois-based company said it had net income of 45 cents. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were 56 cents per share.
- The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 48 cents per share.
- AP story here.
- On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had a loss of 60 cents. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 35 cents per share.
- The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 63 cents per share.
- misses by 2 cents
- misses on revenues
- refiner profits jump 40%, Reuters
- profit of $1.76 per share
- results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.80 per share
- revenue of $18.76 billion in the period, topping Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $18.19 billion
- misses by 4 cents
- press release here
- a loss of 2 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 21 cents per share
- results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 18 cents per share
- forecast $1.55; hits record revenue on sale of massive power plant; shares up 13%; revenues beat; raises 2015 guidance;
- forecast a loss of $1.95; shares collapse; fall 18% after hours; earnings miss; a loss of $2.10/share;
- forecast 79 cents; beats; 81 cents;
- forecast 43 cents;
- profit jumped 11% in the third quarter driven by growing sales at its U.S. cafes, though it projected earnings for the current period that came in slightly below analysts’ expectations.
- global same-store sales rose 8% in the latest quarter, above Consensus Metrix analysts’ expectations for an increase of 6.9%
- same-store sales in the Americas segment grew 8%—driven by a 9% jump in the U.S.—also exceeding analysts’ forecasts.
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Time To Slash
Now that Trump/Carson forced the debates from three hours to two hours, it is now time to limit the number of those on stage from 10 to 5.
We still have these folks on stage (poll results following the debate)
- Huckabee: 0.65% (are you kidding?)
- Bush: 1.24%
- Christie: 2.76%
- Fiorina: 2.8%
- Paul: 3.32%
Of course several others do not much better, including Carson at 4.46%.
Trump: almost 50%
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