Staggering, A Re-Look At The NatGas Refill Rate And The Bakken -- July 11, 2015

I saw this earlier; was surprised, but forgot to post it.

Before reading this, remember: the Bakken is an oil field, not a natural gas field. Unlike almost any other oil field in the US, the Bakken produces nearly 100% oil, about 93 to 97% depending on the location in the Bakken. The Bakken does not produce natural gas. Except ...

... from today's Director Cut with the May, 2015, North Dakota data, natural gas production:

• April, natural gas: 1,527,141 MCF/day
• May, natural gas: 1,625,625 MCF/day (preliminary -- a new all-time high)

I don't know about you, but this completely blows me away.  It's not the "raw number" but the fact that the production number hit a new all-time high despite the active rig count dropping from 200 to 73; and wells being choked back.

Maybe it's no big deal; I don't know but it certainly caught my eye.

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Putting Some Numbers In Perspective

Again, my comments and interpretations may be suspect, but perhaps a re-look at the Bakken natural gas numbers to help put things in perspective.

Before looking at the Bakken numbers again, look at the most recent EIA post on NG fill rate.  Also, note the three regions, East, West, and Producing. Now the verbiage (these are weekly figures):

• stocks in the Producing Region were 98 Bcf above the 5-year average of 952 Bcf after a net injection of 23 Bcf.
• stocks in the West Region were 24 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 1 Bcf. 

Now, back to the Bakken numbers: 1.625,625 billion cf/day = 11.4 bcf / week (same time unit as the EIA weekly figures.

So:

• producing region, Texas, OK, etc., with a net injection of 23 Bcf
• the west region, which includes ND and California, with a net drawdown fo 1 Bcf
• and the tiny little area known as the Bakken:  11 Bcf produced last month on a weekly basis

A reader pointed out (see first comment) that this is a pretty significant figure for the Bakken. It really is, considering that:

• the Bakken is an oil field, not a natural gas field; 93% to 97% of hydrocarbon production in the Bakken is crude oil
• activity in the Bakken has decreased remarkably; from 200 rigs in the boom to 73 rigs now
• wells in the Bakken are being choked back
• geographically, the Bakken is a very, very small area, and the thickness of the seam is very, very thin (which takes us back to TOC and recovery rate)
• not only is the Bakken geographically a very, very small area, due to the slump in prices, the active area has contracted significantly to a small area around Williston and Watford City, Williams County and McKenzie County respectively
• and, especially considering that both Jane Nielson and snopes.com think the Bakken is over-hyped

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Fidelity Natural Gas Numbers

Courtesy of Don.

Fidelity wells in North Dakota.

May, 2015:

• 63 natural gas wells in Cedar Creek field, southwest North Dakota; no change from January, 2015
• 101 total oil wells
• 224,410 bbls of oil (25% decrease since January, 2015)
• 225,574 Mcft of natural gas (12.2% decrease since January, 2015)

January, 2015:

• 63 natural gas wells 
• 99 total oil wells
• 299,526 bbls of oil
• 263,702 Mcft of natural gas