I do not have a dog in this fight. Gut check for Alaska. I believe the pipeline is running about 450,000 bopd and apparently the pipeline runs the risk of failing if production drops below 400K or thereabouts. I haven't checked the data in a long time. I could be way wrong.
This could be great news for the Bakken and the Lower 48. If Alaska votes to approve a new tax on oil production, COP says it will stop drilling on the North Slope.
How big a deal is that threat?
Look at the numbers:
The North Slope generated one-fourth of COP's worldwide crude production:
- three fields
- 218K boepd in 2019
Ballot Initiative 1, if passed:
- COP says it would not resume normal production of its Alpine, Prudhoe, and Kuparuk fields in 2021 or beyond that
- would tax fields with lifetime production of at least 400 million bbls of crude oil and at least 40K bbl/day in the preceding calendar year
- excluding Libya, COP produces around 1 million boepd
- production in the Lower 48: averaged 309,000 boepd
- Eagle Ford: 167K boepd
- Bakken: 75K boepd
- Permian: 67K boepd
- COP recently acquired Concho (the Permian)
Concho: about 200,000 bopd which would offset loss of Alaska production.
COP 3Q20 earnings: $500 million loss vs a profit of $3.1 billion during same period in 2019.
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The Art Page
Isn't this a great easel? Sophia's easel.
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