On June 12, 2014, "
along the watch tower," I wrote:
If this "thing" in Iraq goes as it appears to be going, once the sand settles,
I may have to add a fifth center of gravity: IranSyriaIraq. Which leads
us to Saudi Arabia. One word: terrified.
That didn't take long
. The (London) Telegraph is reporting that Saudi Arabia is moving 30,000 troops along the Iraqi border, concerned about the spread of "foreign fanaticism," also known as "jihadism" (see below):
Saudi Arabia has sent 30,000 troops to reinforce its long northern
desert border after Iraqi troops withdrew from the other side.
Fighters from Islamic State, the jihadist group, and its allies have already
seized frontier posts on Iraq's western borders with Syria and Jordan. The
southern border with Saudi Arabia, which regards itself as vulnerable to the
threat of jihadism, is more than 500 miles long.
Large parts of it are with Anbar province, the centre of Islamic State power
in Iraq and now almost entirely under the control either of the group itself
or of Sunni Arab tribes that have allied with it.
The last serious incursion into Saudi Arabia also came from Iraq, after Saddam
Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. Iraqi forces were eventually repelled from
the Saudi town of Khafji, the following January, but only after they were
attacked from the air by American jets. [The Saudis can assume they cannot count on US air support this time around.]
Since then, the border has been relatively stable and far more concern and
attention has been paid to the southern border with Yemen, which is
mountainous and hard to control, and where there have been two separate,
long-running insurgencies, one jihadist, and one led by a Shia breakaway
movement.
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