"These Are Crazy Numbers" -- Steve Liesman -- The Market And Political Page, T+9 -- March 9, 2018

Updates

March 10, 2018: the "job picture" since Trump became president has been so stunning, CNN has quit updating its "Trump's Jobs Tracker." I can't make this stuff up. My hunch: CNN is going to start tracking U-6.

Original Post 

I feel like I'm beating a dead horse, but this is a big, big deal.

As you all know, I quit watching television on February 1, 2018, because I knew the news that day was going to result in huge volatility; I now forget the specific bit of news. I said I would not go back to business news (CNBC) until March 1, 2018.

By March 1, 2018, I had really lost interest in returning to CNBC (I felt so liberated) but then, as luck would have it, it was reported that President Trump was going to place tariffs on steel and aluminum. I knew that volatility was back, as would the inanity and banality of the talking heads trying to explain daily movements, up or down, of 400 points on the Dow, so I continued my own little boycott.

I haven't watched CNBC since February 1, 2018.

Until today. Sort of.

With the release of the February jobs numbers I was curious what the market would do, and turned on television and turned to CNBC for less than 30 seconds when I got home a few minutes ago.

Wow, what a day.

I still didn't watch any CNBC today because a) I didn't want to; and, b) I was either riding my bike; at the Grapevine, TX, library; or at a sushi restaurant (Kula, near Plano, TX) for lunch with my wife.

I just got home and wanted to see if the market was holding. I got my original information from the Drudge Report. I posted much of that earlier.

Then this link from Drudge: "These numbers are crazy." -- Steve Liesman.

Steve Liesman, what can I say:

• there are few analysts I like less than Steve Liesman
• Liesman is clearly a huge supporter of the past president (Obama)
• Liesman is clearly skeptical that Trump's policies will make any difference; and, always seems surprised when there is good news with Trump in office

And, so today, how could I not go to the linked story?

Wow, what a great screen shot. Notice the market just after the numbers were released. Prior to the jobs report, the Dow was set to open about 34 points on the upside.

Up 127 points immediately after the jobs numbers were released and once the traders had a chance to look at the "deeper" data, the market was up over 400 points -- before the close on a Friday afternoon.

Also, note that WTI is up over 3%. 

So, now let's listen to the "these-numbers-are-crazy" analysis by Steve Liesman:

• a certain perversity to the numbers
• this is crazy
• retail up 50,000 -- outside of the funky seasonal adjustment period
• government jobs surging: up 26,000 as well
• construction up 61,000 -- apparently good weather helped a little bit (that's all he had to say? and he's an analyst?
• manufacturing up 31,000 -- said it was good but no analysis
• here's the perversity: the unemployment numbers
• all these numbers (for the past three months) are double what the Fed believes is the "natural rate of job growth and yet these numbers are not bringing down the unemployment rate
• that's what's perverse about it
• participation rate (63%): huge move but "you have to be careful" -- Liesman, but doesn't say why
• perversity: jobs rising but wages not rising
• Santelli: a world where labor force participation is going up -- sort of the foundation of the argument that 95% of the unemployed are not employable -- a false argument; Santelli argues (and has argued for quite some time) -- many of the "unemployed" are, in fact, employable, and that's why the overall number of unemployed (along with labor force participation rising) is why unemployment remains unchanged
• U-6: rate unchanged month-over-month at 8.2%

Not much analysis by Steve Liesman. Not one word about Trump's policies. Not one word about anything except simply reading numbers from the report released by the government. You, dear read, could have done that.