900 vs 300

Three data points below the breaks:

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1. 2008: The State of North Dakota estimated in 2008 that the Bakken Formation contains 149.2 billion barrels of oil in-place (OOIP) within the borders of North Dakota. (Don't you just love that "point.two"? It makes the number look much more believable than if it were 150 billion bbls, but I digress.) [Update: that link is broken, but it helps me date this presentation. This NDIC presentation must have been in 2008 because slide 30 shows 149.2 billion bbls of oil OOIP in the middle Bakken. I don't want to lose presentation, so I have archived it.]

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2. I vaguely recall that early on in the Bakken boom "they" said one could expect about 3 - 4 percent recovery of OOIP.  Four percent of 150 billion --> 6 billion.  In fact, from various conference calls, it appears "they" are recovering eight percent (eight percent of 150 billion --> 12 billion). Harold Hamm has said for quite some time that 24 billion is likely to be recovered. Eight percent of "what" --> 24 billion?  300 billion. So, I've always thought Bakken OOIP was around 300 billion barrels.

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3. From an earlier post this year (February 23, 2012:

From wiki:

A research paper by USGS geochemist Leigh Price in 1999 estimated the total amount of oil contained in the Bakken shale ranged from 271 billion to 503 billion barrels, with a mean of 413 billion barrels  -- original oil in place (OOIP).  (200,000 square miles) 

With the deeper benches in the Three Forks formation, CLR says there could be 900 billion barrels of OOIP in the Bakken Pool.

Simply incredible.

Also from wiki:

Ghawar is an oil field located in Al-Ahsa Governorate, Saudi Arabia. Measuring 280 by 30 km (170 by 19 mi), it is by far the largest conventional oil field in the world. When appraised in the 1970s, the field was assessed to have 170 billion barrels of original oil in place (OOIP). (3,230 square miles)

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So, those are the data points. A lot of folks have said Leigh Price's estimate of 270 to 500 billion bbls of original oil in place in the North Dakota Bakken was on the high side.

Harold Hamm consistently opines that he thinks there is 24 billion bbls of recoverable oil from the Bakken. Eight percent recovery is certainly on the high side but there is more and more evidence that we are seeing at least eight percent recovery by the better Bakken drillers. Again 8% of what = 24? 300 billion barrels.

So: 300 billion bbls OOIP seems to be "the number."

But note: CLR above suggested that with the deeper benches of Three Forks, the OOIP might be as much as 900 billion barrels of oil (or three times as much as 300 billion barrels).

A SeekingAlpha.com article today reminds us that CLR thinks the new number is 900 billion bbls. That was in the 4Q11 conference call.

So, is CLR putting its money where its mouth is? From the linked article:

When asked about where they will spend their $550 million CapEx increase, Hume responded "it's all entirely going to the Bakken." (They produce in the Niobrara/DJ Basin, the Anadarko Woodford and the Bakken.) He added, "we're obviously participating in all the acreage sales in our key plays, mainly the Bakken. Right now, we're very concentrated, very focused on consolidating acreage in the Bakken."