Friday, March 16, 2012

For Investors Only -- Obama, Saudis, and Spiking Oil Prices -- Boston Apple Store iPad Update -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Updates

May 5, 2013: US imports of Saudi Arabia have come down significantly.

http://205.254.135.7/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSSA1&f=M

March 17, 2012: So, the update on the Boston Apple store and the iPad. Taking public transportation I got to the Apple store, downtown Boston (Boylston Street) about 8:00 p.m. No line, but I had to wait a few minutes to touch the iPad; the table of eight (8) store units was surrounded by a score of folks. Yes, it was amazing. I was there for the entire hour, before they told us the store was closed (9:00 p.m.) and would open in the morrow at 8:00 a.m. It seemed to load faster, but hard to say. I honestly didn't expect "retinal resolution" to be all that great, but I was surprised. It was outstanding.

Today's Boston Globe data points:
  • 8:00 a.m., launch day: 200 people in line; a small line until 5:00 a.m. when it "exploded"
  • the line stretched around the corner up the next street (the Apple store sits in the middle of the block, directly across the street from the Prudential Center, food court entrance, Boylston Street)
  • by 8:30 a.m., the line was gone; everyone able to get into the store (it's a three-floor store; a huge store)
  • dictation app is exception; can take eight dictated sentences in one take -- transcribed in under a second, the Siri app
March 17, 2012: Don found the site for the government data referenced in the post below. It is:

http://205.254.135.7/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSSA1&f=M

Note, when you click on that URL, you may get a warning that the site is formatted in a strange way and could have viruses. I took the chance, clicked on it, and found it to be a US government site, an Energy Information Agency Site. Go figure.

The data is current through December, 2011, and there is minimal evidence that Saudi imports have increased. Comparing the numbers from the first six months of 2011 with the last six months of 2011, yes, Saudi imports have increased 20% but nothing to the degree suggested in the story below.

I assume Reuters in the story below has their facts straight; if so, Reuters has access to data for the months of January and February. It will be interesting to track the official US data over the next few months. If I forget to do that, someone remind me.

Original Post

I might come back to this story later, but I have to run. I want to see what is going on at the Apple store in downtown Boston before it closes this evening.

But this Reuters story is very, very interesting.
Saudi Arabia is preparing to extend this year's unexpected jump in oil sales to the United States, adding to speculation about the response of the world's top oil exporter to sanctions against Iran and a rally in prices.

The kingdom's shipments to the United States have quietly risen 25 percent to the highest level since mid-2008, according to preliminary U.S. government data, a sizeable leap that appears at least partly related to the imminent completion of a major expansion at its joint-venture Motiva refinery in Texas.
Go to the link. I thought our "dependence" on mideast oil had been dropping, but now we learn that Saudi's shipments of crude to the US have quietly risen 25 percent to the highest level since mid-2008. Hmmm....Keystone XL shut down....Saudi oil and Canadian oil competing for same end-users? And we opted for Saudi? Shut off Canada?

Remember, Saudi's oil is heavy, like....drum roll... Canada's.

Something is being choreographed, folks.

The on-again, off-again news that Obama was going to release oil from the SPR provided a nice benchmark for the administration, regardless of the accuracy/origin of the initial story. 

Go to the link. Huge amount of information for investors. Huge opportunities.

Hey, by the way, did folks notice the significant move up for EOG today, BEFORE the price of oil spiked $2.00? The price of WTI was essentially flat the entire day, until mid-afternoon. Sometime earlier, I was surprised to see EOG moving up quickly -- the price of oil was essentially flat before EOG started going up. Then, oil spiked. KOG was flat to down most of the day, but by the end of the day was up almost 3 percent, AFTER the surge in the price of oil. And KOG has a P/E of 545.  OAS started moving about 12:30 p.m. KOG moved in the last hour. EOG shot up about 12:15 p.m.

Simply idle rambling, waiting for the daily activity report. This is not an investment site. No recommendations are being made with regard to any buying or selling securities. See disclaimer at the sidebar at the right.

2 comments:

  1. Interesting how the Saudis are giving discounts to US refiners rather than charge the world price that is based on Brent and have invested significant amounts of money in the Port Arthur refinery.

    WTIs price are an anomaly due to the dramatic increase crude production in the mid-section of the United States as well as Canadian production out of Alberta. With crude far exceeding consumption a discount in crude prices happens.

    It looks like the Saudis see this production as a threat and are trying to manipulate of oil supply in the mid-section of the country in an effort to discourage the crude oil renaissance occurring in the US.

    They also see an Administration who is doing everything possible to inhibit domestic production and admiring the Saudis in their effort to see the US has ample supplies of crude oil.

    Geo politics and market manipulation is something to behold. Oh the games that are played.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting point. A lot of angles to this story.

      What about this one? Obama re-filling the SPR following the last release: a) with Saudi oil; and, b) planning for a second release?

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