Unemployment Claims Surge 31,000; Now, Back Over 300,000 -- February 26, 2015; "Surged Unexpectedly" -- Bloomberg; "Far Outside" The Forecast -- Econoday

Updates

Later, 8:28 a.m. CT: Bloomberg notes that "the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by the most since December 2013 last week from a week earlier, a sign of uneven progress in the labor market."

 

Original Post

First time unemployment claims surge 31,000 to 313,000. Just heard that on the radio. Can't wait to read the spin. I'll bet a week's pay that Reuters says this is evidence that job market remains healthy.

Yes, here it is, from the AP:

• Applications for US unemployment benefits jump to 313,000; level still points to solid hiring.

Well, that's good news for the 313,000 that just got pink slips.

Bloomberg not quite so enthused with the report:

Initial jobless claims surged unexpectedly in the February 21 week, up 31,000 to a 313,000 level that is far outside the Econoday consensus (279,000 to 300,000).

The 4-week average is up 11,500 to 294,500 but is still more than 10,000 below a month ago in a comparison that, despite the latest week's surge, still points to improvement for the labor market.

Data on continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, are mixed. Continuing claims for the February 21 week fell 21,000 to 2.401 million but the 4-week average rose 2,000 to 2.399 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

The impact of the disappointment for initial claims is likely to be mitigated by a couple of factors: the February 21 week was a week shortened by Presidents' Day, a factor that makes for outsized adjustments to the data, and the prior week, the February 14 week, not the latest week, was the sample week for the monthly employment report.