OPEC Spare Capacity in 1Q12: Lowest Since 2008

Updates

May 26, 2013: Internal clash in OPEC over American shale oil production. Nigeria has a huge concern. 

October 7, 2012: it is now generally agreed that Venezuela has passed Saudi Arabia in proven reserves; if accurate Venezuela is now #1 in the world for proven reserves;

According to studies, Venezuela has overtaken Saudi Arabia to become number one in the world for proven oil reserves, largely thanks to the heavy crude found in this vast alluvial plain.

According to a report this year by BP, Venezuela has reserves of 296.5 billionbarrels, about 10% more than Saudi Arabia and 18% of the global total. At the country's current levels of production, this would last about 100 years.  

Original Post

Independent Stock Analysis alerted me to this little gem.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global spare crude oil production capacity averaged about 2.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first quarter of 2012, down about 1.3 million bbl/d from the same period in 2011 (see chart above). The world's spare crude oil production capacity is held by member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). There is little or no spare capacity outside of the OPEC member countries.

Spare crude oil production capacity is now less than 3% of total world crude oil consumption—the lowest proportion since the fourth quarter of 2008—based on EIA estimates. 

Link here to the full story. 

Regular readers know this fits my worldview. See Forbes/Sosnoff one year ago. Shell's John Hofmeister may not get the exact price point, but he's got the right trend, the right worldview.

There may be a reason Saudi is stockpiling 80 million bbls of crude offshore. 

Huge thanks to ISA.