Monday, January 9, 2012

And Number Is ... Drum Roll ... Please .... $360 Million ... Rounded, Of Course -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

When last reported, back in the October, 2011, time frame, the value of Williston building permits were on track, but still, well below, to hit $300 million for the calendar year.

"Everyone" was projecting $300 million.

The actual number (probably to be revised): $360 million (off by almost 20 percent, even as late as October)

Data points:
  • Williston: record $360 million worth of building permits in calendar year 2011 (numbers rounded)
  • the amount was more than triple the value issued in 2010 -- I still think of the individual who wrote to tell me the Bakken is no longer exciting; that the Bakken is completely predictable
  • $45 million in building permits in 2009
  • 3Q11: Williston had nearly $725 million in taxable sales and purchases
  • taxable sales in 3Q11 in Williston (pop: 12,000) outstrips Fargo (pop: 100,000) -- population figures in the west entirely unreliable
"Eye-popping" I would say, but then I have a different perspective than some.

12 comments:

  1. In the over and under pool for 2012, I predict Williston (city) building permits will be under one billion in 2012.

    anon 1

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  2. Are we allowed to "round" the 2012 reported number?

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  3. You can round to the nearest 100m$

    Irrational exuberance (to coin a phrase) comes into play at some point, but maybe someone would take the other side of anonymous' statement (Bruce ? You can "time stamp" it ). Gambling is against the law so money can't be involved of course.

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  4. I'm going to "bet" that the industry as maxed out in the Williston area, and Williston will be lucky to get to $200 million in new permits in calendar year 2012.

    And I hope I am way, way off. Smile.

    That is not to say that $2 billion/month won't continue to be pumped into the North Dakota oil patch, it just won't be in the form of new buildings in Williston.

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  5. Say what? An oil boom? A resulting construction boom to the tune of 360m$ ? No way.
    Who knew ? Oh wait , everybody and their brother?

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  6. Wow! I had you pegged as an optimist. :)

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  7. $45 million a couple years ago; $100 million in 2010; $360 million this past year (2011).


    If I was in the Bakken I would have a better idea: the first place I would check out would be the two industrial parks west of Williston; if there is still land yet to be built on, then maybe my $200 million is too low, so we will see.

    As far as everyone knowing about the boom: folks would be amazed how many comments I get from folks who appear to have no idea. I do not post most of those comments. As noted earlier, in general, to get posted, a comment has to add something to the conversation.

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  8. A comment (or comments) to the effect that someone (or a bunch of someone's) is/are clueless about the economic boom that is unfolding in western ND WOULD add something to the conversation. Mostly to reveal how out to lunch a large segment of the population is.

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  9. I suppose. But I actually find enough examples in mainstream media articles.

    The best example was NBC's special a couple months ago ("Rock 30") which led off with the Bakken -- only three years late.

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  10. ahhh...yeah...$200 million is too low. My bet is at least 425 million. Granite Peaks Phase 1 (out of 3) in Harvest Hills. They have sold ALL but 5 residential lots so far. The other half of phase 1 are multi housing lots (also all sold out) Ground breaking will take place this spring for phase 2 and possibly 3. Which include another 1,000 building lots for single and multi, and includes a new middle school. There is a link to a site that invites contractors to check out and bid on upcoming projects. Included are one new elementary schools, one new middle school, addition to a current elementary school to house an extra 500 students, renovation of a current high school, 4 national chain resturaunts, one 200,000 sq ft national retail store (my guess is Menards) 4 more hotels, a 145 unit assisted living facility, to name a few...just the schools alone will be over 100million. Link below. Once you click on the link, click on the drop down box to choose 90+ days (not just 90 days) then type in Williston for city, and scroll the right box and put a check mark in North Dakota. you are searching upcoming building projects for OVER the last 90 days for WIlliston, ND...you can't see the entire project without registering, but you get a brief description of the projects.

    https://www.bidclerk.com/advanced-search.html

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  11. Bakken Industrial park will be in full swing this spring as well. It is pretty evident they will sell out of their commercial lots with the new Love's truck center breaking ground this spring. Also Sand Creek retail center will break ground this spring. University Commons (600 plus unit residential area) has already begun scraping. This is south of 26th street behind the old Jorgenson's (now called 26th street liquor). That nearly 30 acre site will be housing. Another exciting project is a huge 4 level office complex out east of Williston built into a hillside by Stoney Creek school where the new Weatherford complex (similar to the Baker Huges, Sanje, Halliburton and Schlumberger complexes is going to be constructed. Weatherford is following the lead of the other large oil service companies in putting down permanent and serious roots in Williston. Check out this site for a stand alone office complex to be built by the owners of Red River Supply
    called Stoney Creek Offices link below:

    http://www.oza.com/index.php?page=stoney-creek

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    Replies
    1. Wow, I have got to get back to Williston this spring/summer. Thank you.

      See these comments in a stand-alone post where more folks will see them. Again, thank you.

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