Wednesday, May 1, 2019

US Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Increased By A Whopping 10 MIllion Bbls -- May 1, 2019

9.9 million bbls to be exact.

EIA: US crude oil inventories rise to highest levels since September,  2017.

Ben Winkley: "US crude oil inventories large enough to be visible from space."

Refiners: cut back. weekly refinery utilization off 09%.

Anas Alhajji: tried to make a case for oil going from green to red after the EIA data released; in fact; oil stayed almost flat.

It will be interesting to watch the "spin" on this.

Had you paid for Z4 research, this is the data that was forecast earlier this week -- Z4 Research / Z-Man forecasts (from twitter):
  • crude: up 0.9 million bbls (off by a factor of 10)
  • gasoline: down 1.0 million bbls (initial report only said gasoline inventories increased)
  • distillates: down 0.8million bbls (decreased by 1.3 million bbls)
  • strong gasoline demand (pending)
  • a drop in net imports (wrong)
WTI: down all of 21 cents, moments after inventory number released.

WTI, later: holding at $63.41 -- folks suggest that the huge build is offset by the turmoil in Venezuela. 

Re-balancing:

Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
337.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
343.8
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6

Somehow this week's numbers seem to be off slightly. If last week's inventory was 460.1 million bbls and this increase this week was 9.9 million bbls, then the inventory should be an even 470 million bbls. I must have made a typographical error. 

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