Staggering -- But Not In A Good Way -- November 13, 2020

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

The lede: 

The oil price collapse is depriving Saudi Arabia of US$27.5 billion in oil revenues this year, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Friday, admitting that the current oil income is not enough to cover the Kingdom’s salaries bill.  

Data points:

• one year ago, Saudi forecast 2020 revenue at $222 billion (US)
• $137 billion (US) from oil
• in fact: 2020 oil revenue, $109 billion (US)
• annual budget:
• salaries: 504 billion riyals ($137 billion)
• capital spending: 173 billion riyals ($40 billion)
• social security benefits: 69 billion riyals ($20 billion, rounded)
• operation and maintenance: 140 billion riyals ($37 billion)
• total: 886 billion riyals ($236 billion)
• so:
• tripling the value-added tax (VAT)
• reducing payouts to poorer households
• discontinuing cost-of-live allowances for state workers
• no mention of the $75 billion dividend paid by Saudi Aramco
• no mention of cost of imports on which the kingdom relies
  
• but look at this: Fitch Ratings
• Saudi Arabia's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR): NEGATIVE rating