Inflation Numbers Better Than Expected -- Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator -- Better Than Expected -- September 27, 2024

Locator: 48411ECON.

Too many numbers to post: bottom line -- the numbers are better than forecast.

"We've made progress!" -- CNBC's most hawkish anti-Fed contributor.

Does the market like these numbers? Yes! Negative indices overnight now turning positive. Markets will open at new highs (again).

Let's see what Steve Liesman and others have to say.

Steve Liesman:

• "there will be a time to declare victory on inflation and this is darn close"
• annualized y/y: 1.7% core
• two months now, less than 2.0%
• exactly what the Fed wanted to see
• actually a bit better

Former federal reserve vice chairman: "these numbers were good."

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE): up slightly. 

Savings rate has jumped! This suggests US consumer is doing better than expected. Revision from 3% to 5%. 

And now, gasoline down to $2.51 here in north Texas. 

Futures:

• Dow: up 35.
• S&P 500: up 3.
• Nasdaq: up 23.

Unions have a bit more clout. But unions affect "products" inflation, not "services" inflation.

Therefore, not a real concern -- wage inflation.

Wow, why don't they say it? Goldilocks? Or is even better than "Goldilocks"?

• bull market
• AI revolution: we've never seen anything like this before 
• being led by private money, not federal money
• private money: this is now becoming a meme
  
• PCE up slightly
• savings rate up significantly -- in fact, it jumped
• gasoline prices plummeting
• moving into Christmas season
• GDP coming in at 3%
• unemployment with a 4%-handle -- labor market -- full employment
• inflation: "there will be a time to declare victory on inflation and this is darn close" -- from one of the most curmudgeonly analysts on CNBC.
• Kernan: the wrong time to be flooding the market with "free money." Oh give me a break -- 50 basis points -- and now talking about another 25 basis points -- that's hardly flooding the market with "free money."
• has he looked at morgage rates, lately?
  
• tell me again, free money is bad for the economy;

One month ago, link here:

This month, just reported minutes ago:

AAPL: up almost a dollar in pre-market trading.

Micron: up another $1.00 in pre-market trading.

Intel: Biden administration continues to throw huge amounts of money Intel's way. 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 
  

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My Favorite Chart: MMF

Locator: 48412MMF.

Link here.

Are you kidding me? Didn't see this coming, but once one thinks about it, not surprising. I would love to post what I think is causing this but I can't handle the pushback. LOL.

My favorite chart.

MMF assets increased by $120 billion m/m. Currently at $6.42 trillion. 

Magnificent seven market cap: around $16 trillion.

As of yesterday, September 26, 2024, link here, total = $19.5775 trillion:

And, now the market is "broadening."