Covid: Thoughts On Conflicting Data -- January 16, 2024

Locator: 46555COVID.

There's only two sets of data to look at:

• the CDC clinical data; and,
• the CDC (?) sewer / waste / human poop data.
  

What "big Covid wave"? It seems like there are a lot of things we could track in sewage ... starting with illicit and licit drugs.

The CDC (?) sewer / waste / human poop data is not new. The sewage story has been reported for quite some and continues to be reported: 

• sewage samples suggest a lot of Covid virus particles out there;
• The CDC data suggests we've seen the peak of symptomatic disease for this year.

In the five previous seasons, there have been three seasons in which we saw a single peak; in one season (2018 - 2019) we saw a double peak; in one season (2019 - 2020) we saw a triple peak with the respiratory illness season lasting much longer than the norm -- out to sixteen weeks into the new year.

All things being equal, the sewage studies suggest we may see a double peak, or even a triple peak season this year (January through end of March).

But all things are not equal. What has changed:

• Americans much more knowledgeable and continue to take personal precautions; enough, perhaps, to interrupt the transmission of the virus;
• we now have vaccines for all three major respiratory viruses: RSV, "seasonal flu," and, Covid;
• we now have more effective treatment modalities to treat all these viruses once infected;
• decades of observation suggest that human viral pathogens attenuate over time.

Of those four "data points," the one that interests me the most? The likely attenuation of the Covid virus.

So, can the information from the two data sets be reconciled?

Let's assume the data is completely accurate.

My take: Covid is no longer a concern for those between the ages of 26 and 64 with normal immune systems. 

The data point I'm missing: Covid effect on immunocompromised individuals living in urban areas who have not been vaccinated.