And So It Begins -- January 16, 2024

Locator: 46554B.

Dismal day for blogging -- it's either the cold spell or the news -- but we'll press on, though at the moment my heart's not in it. Off the net for an hour ... back about 9:30 a.m. CT.

On the agenda today:

• the triple respiratory threat update; a reader's comment (at that same link); and, a link to a NYT article that appeared right after I posted my update --
• ERCOT: concerns were overblown; perhaps slightly tighter when the sun goes down later this afternoon/early evening; but we'll pray to the wind gods and sun gods and ...
  
• more on the NFL wildcat round; the Cowboys again (of course); the Peacock paywall (spoiler alert: it's only going to get worse); and the Eagles incredible demise;
• terabytes of data;
  
• Apple Watch: will "pause" O2 monitoring 
• SCOTUS sides with Apple on separate issue
  
• Medicare: thank you Mr Biden (this is, perhaps the biggest story of the day)
• the jobs / businesses that "saved" America from a hard landing / recession (at least so far);
• eight Spanish words with Arabic roots
• Iowa: over-rated in importance? Yup, won't say any more on this.
• AMD and Nvidia (again) surged today (posted later in the day)
  

These are the four stories that interest me most this morning, two from the list above:

• Medicare update;
• Covid data;
• Texas economy and politics.
• terabytes of data.
  

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.67. This still blows me away. It certainly suggests traders expect:

• a recession / hard landing;
• a strong dollar;
• huge supply / demand short term;
• not much risk in Mideast, despite the headlines

Tuesday, January 16, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 28 for the year
39887, conf, Kraken Deacon 19-18-7 2H,
38160, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH,
37344, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot 23-11 6TFH,
35366, conf, Enerplus, Koala 152-994-23CH,

Monday, January 15, 2024: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 24 for the year
39888, conf, Kraken, Deacon 19-18-7-3H,
39054, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 7B,
39053, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 6T,
38159, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 7-1-17TFH,
35365, conf, Enerplus, Boomer 152-94-23CH-TF1,
35364, conf, Enerplus, Joey 152-94-23CH,

Sunday, January 14, 2024: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter, 18 for the year
39886, conf, Kraken, Deacon LW 19-18-7-12TFH,
38217, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 8-1-17TFH,
36377, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-2,

Saturday, January 13, 2024: 15 for the month; 15 for the quarter, 15 for the year
39885, conf, Kraken, Kisner 24-13-12 4H,
36378, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-3,

RBN Energy: after a long courtship, gas-focused Cheasapeake and Southwestern put ring on it.

In a deal the energy industry had been whispering about for months, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy will combine to form what will be the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., with 7.3 Bcf/d of production in the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville and ready access to the Northeast and the LNG export market — assuming the merger passes muster with federal regulators. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the merger and why it makes sense for both E&Ps. 

The surging upstream M&A market, which accelerated to an all-time record pace over the past six months, has stunned a lot of industry observers. The more than $200 billion in transactions over the past year and two weeks has included some surprising deals (Chevron acquiring Hess) and some competitive bidding wars (Occidental Petroleum winning CrownRock). But the latest deal — the longest-rumored and perhaps the most logical of all (think peanut butter and jelly) — is the merger of Chesapeake and Southwestern, the two largest Haynesville producers and major Appalachia operators. In today’s blog, we analyze this $11.5 billion marriage.