I've still not seen a good explanation tying this altogether.
Generally, inflation associated with "hot economy."
We have inflation (rent, used cars, groceries), but GDP does not suggest a "hot economy." Quite the opposite. A struggling economy. And the fed response: take actions to further depress the economy. I don't know.
- inflation
- gasoline demand cratering
- US GDP: negative x two quarters; possibly a third-consecutive negative quarter
- and the Fed is fast-cycling "Fed rates" -- despite struggling economy
- tight, tight, tight labor market;
- labor market: lagging indicator -- something we've been told for the past year
- my thesis, not yet disproved: US inflation -- tipping point -- the Biden administration gaslighting and keystoning America
BLS: link here. Generally, folks follow U-3. With current situation, U-1 makes a lot more sense.
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