TGIF -- September 16, 2022

Germany: going the full monty

• overnight: seized Rosneft assets; Bloomberg;
• includes three oil refineries
  
• considering nationalizing three of the country's largest natural gas companies
• Uniper
• VNG
• Gazprom Germania (now DBA as Securing Energy for Europe
• to avoid collapse of its domestic energy market;
• the need for action is [said to be] urgent with Uniper losing 100 million euros a day as it tries to replace Russian gas with more expensive alternatives.
  

Turkey: with Russia collapsing in the Ukraine, the elephant in the room: Turkey; from Peter Zeihan:

There is an elephant in the room in many of these scenarios... and that's Turkey. 

Whatever their current economic headaches, the Turkish state under Erdogan has maintained a constant march toward realizing a populist, Islamist-tinged, pan-Turkic nationalism that has played out in several ways. 

One of the most recent has been Turkey's arming and not-so-tacit support of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia. 

Even with Turkey's erstwhile EU aspirations and current NATO membership, Ankara has been equally at ease in pursuing its own priorities during the bloc's conflict with the Russians over Ukraine. 

But perhaps nowhere will see the full unfurling of Turkish geopolitical ambition in the wake of Russian strategic senescence more than Syria. 

The Alawite regime in Damascus relies (relied?) heavily on its Russian and Iranian backers, and with Moscow out of the way Ankara faces little opposition. Squashing Kurdish ambitions, redrawing borders, setting up a puppet state, coordinating with Israel to counter Iran--all are on the table for a would be neo-Ottoman Turkey without strong pushback from Russia and Iran.

Pat on the back: I mentioned this in a sidebar with a reader just a few days ago -- Russia has little appetite/capability for Mideast mischief right now.  

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Gasoline Demand

When I saw the gasoline demand numbers being reported a month ago, I was skeptical, very skeptical. It was not what I was seeing in north Texas. But I'm no longer skeptical. One can only "manipulate" the data so long, and now it's been a month, and the data continues to get worse. 

If one feels strongly that gasoline demand correlates with economic well-being of the US, it's hard not to see more talk of a recession. GDP forecast has just been slashed and is now barely positive. Latest estimate: 0.5 percent; down from 1.3% just one week ago.

Link here.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $84.90. A very real concern that WTI could collapse, taking US oil sector with it -- Biden administration.

Natural gas: $8.070

Monday, September 19, 2022: 29 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 418 for the year

• 38727, conf, Slawson, Sauger Federal 4-22H,

Sunday, September 18, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year

• None.

Saturday, September 17, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year

• 29784, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 4H,
• 29292, conf, Slawson, Phoenix 3-18H,

Friday, September 16, 2022: 26 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 415 for the year

• 29783, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30-3TFH,
• 29293, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 3-19-30H,

RBN Energy: a new perspective on RINs -- the tax-and-subsidize interpretation, part 4.

What has been the most controversial topic in the U.S. refining industry over the last 10 years? Well, it’s a matter of opinion but, judging from time spent in earnings conference calls, law offices, courtrooms, congressional committees, the White House, and other forums of business and political debate, Renewable Identification Numbers — or RINs — would have to be a top contender for that prize. In today’s RBN blog and the final episode of this series, we consider two differing viewpoints on the effects of the RIN system and specific disagreements — or are they misunderstandings? — about the financial consequences of RINs that have dominated the debates and legal cases.