Best Market Ever -- August 18, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Disclaimer: I'm an eternal optimist with a 60-year horizon.

Random comments about the market:

The pullback today: a buying opportunity. Exactly what was the news that precipitated a second day of losses on the market?

Comment: unless this pullback is associated with risks of a recession, I'm not worried. Anybody see a recession in the next twelve to eighteen months. The counter-argument, of course, is the end of stimulus and the Fed begins tapering and raising interest rates.

Headlines:

• Ten-year treasury: 1.283%.
  

•  The "Fed": no decisions made about asset purchases. Kick that can down the road for another month. Talking heads: still six months before asset purchases are halted. Next question: how soon / fast does the Fed put these assets back on the market? Link here.
  

Best market ever:

• between the Fed taking shares off the market and corporations buying back their own stock, there are less shares for traders / investors to buy; that's bullish
• I remember thinking about that in 1983: generally speaking, companies don't often authorize additional shares; what you see, is what you have
  
• the most recent wave of Covid-19 -- either the third or fourth wave, depending where one lives -- a) was somewhat of a surprise; b) will last longer and be steeper than expected; and, c) will slow down the re-opening

Slowing the re-opening:

• slows down the hyper-upward movement of the market over the past year anticipating a broad re-opening by now;
• extends the time in which traders and invaders have to purchase more shares
• the market is being a stock-pickers' market

August doldrums.

Banks are starting to show some life.

Super-spreader meeting:

• Jackson Hole, WY: August 26 - 28, 2021
• Bank of England, EU won't be represented this time at this meeting: focus will be on domestic issues

The next big thing:

• on another down day for the market, SQ is up another one percent; in one year has gone from $141 to $261 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Oil: an enigma --

• "everyone" says producers are falling behind; that may have changed a bit with the latest, deepest "delta" wave slowing demand;
• look at how much oil the US is now importing; an under-reported story;
  
• Kabul falls, and price of oil falls;
• strength of dollar: in a relatively narrow range for the past year; and, at 93 today, is pretty strong; to put that in perspective, the "dollar" was at 70 in March, 2008;
  
• WTI at $66 seems just a bit on the high side if the sweet spot for all concerned runs $60 to $65
• predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand
• allows more time for investors/traders to build a position 

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Seventeen months old.