EIA Forecasts Cooler Summer For US; So Much For Global Warming -- June 7, 2016

I thought it was taking longer this year for spring to arrive. We still haven't had good weather for swimming, although I've been in the pool three times so far this year. But I digress. I was just noting that it seemed cooler than usual, and it seems I was correct. From the EIA's short term forecast:

Gasoline/Refined Products:

• Even with higher crude oil prices passed on to consumers at the pump, summer retail gasoline prices are still expected to be the lowest in 12 years. 
• Despite the recent rise in gasoline prices, summer gasoline demand is forecast to reach a record 9.5 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil:

• Low oil prices continue to cut into domestic oil production, with U.S. monthly oil output not expected to start steadily increasing until the end of 2017. 
• The decline in U.S. May oil production is expected to be the largest drop in monthly output since Hurricane Ike knocked out a big chunk of offshore oil production in September 2008. 
• Oil consumption in India is expected to increase by 350,000 barrels per day this year, the country’s largest annual volume growth ever, based on EIA data that goes back to 1980. 
• Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing through mid-2017, which could help moderate oil prices during that period.

Natural Gas:

• U.S. natural gas production is forecast to remain mostly flat through the summer before output picks up at the end of this year and into 2017 in response to an expected rise in natural gas prices.

Electricity:

• Expected cooler weather for most of the country this summer will contribute to a nearly 2% drop in total U.S. electricity sales to the residential sector this year.

Coal:

• U.S. coal inventories are higher because of less coal use as a generating fuel for electricity and warmer-than-normal temperatures this past winter. 
• The decline in coal use by the electric power sector is expected to contribute to a nearly 8% drop in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from coal during 2016.

Renewables:

• The U.S. power sector’s reliance on hydropower, wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources for electricity generation is expected to increase in 2016.