Tuesday, October 13, 2015

August, 2015 Data, Director's Cut -- October 13, 2015; Fracklog Increases; Production Down Slightly

August, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source


Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The August data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-10-13.pdf

Important data points:
  • Today, pricing: $35.00
  • Bakken price in September: $31.17
  • Fracklog: 993 (79 more than at end of July, previous reporting period)
  • Completions: 115 (119 in July, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
  • Statewide flaring: 20% (no change from previous month) 
Delta, crude oil production
  • 1,186,444 -1,206,966 = - 20,522
  • 20,522 / 1,206,966 = 1.7% decrease month-over-month
Oil:  
  • August, 2015: 1,186,444
  • July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
  • June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
  • May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
  • April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
  • March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
  • February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
  • January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
  • December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
  • delta: see above
Producing wells:
  • August, 2015: 13,016 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
  • July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
  • January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
  • December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
  • September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
  • August, 2014: 11,565
Permitting
  • September, 2015: 154
  • August, 2015: 153
  • July, 2015: 233
  • June, 2015: 192
  • May, 2015: 150
  • April, 2015: 168
  • March, 2015: 190
  • February, 2015: 197
  • January, 2015: 246
  • December, 2014: 251
  • November, 2014: 235
  • October, 2014: 328
  • September, 2014: 261
  • August, 2014: 273
  • All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
Pricing
  • Today, 2015: $35.00
  • September, 2015: $31.17
  • August, 2015: $29.52
  • July, 2015: $39.41
  • June, 2015: 47.73
  • May, 2015: $44.70
  • April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
  • March, 2015: $31.47
  • February, 2015: $34.11
  • January, 2015: $31.41
  • December, 2014: $40.74
  • November, 2014: $60.61
  • October, 2014: $68.94
  • Sept, 2014: $74.85
  • August, 2014: $78.46
Rig count:
  • Today:  67 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
  • August: 74
  • July: 73
  • June: 78
  • May: 83
  • April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
  • March: 108
  • February: 133
  • January: 160
  • December, 2014: 181
  • November, 2014: 188
  • October, 2014: 191
  • Sept, 2014: 193
  • August, 2014: 193
  • July, 2014:  192
Director's comments[see source]
The number of well completions rose sharply from 119 (final) in July to 115 (preliminary) in August.
Drilling rig count
  • rig count increased 1 from July to August; decreased 3 from August to September, and dropped 4 more this month (October)
  • dropped 5 from June to July
  • dropped 5 from May to June
  • dropped 8 from April to May
  • dropped 17 from March to April 8
  • dropped 25 February to March
  • dropped 27 from January to February
  • dropped 7 from November to December
  • dropped 21 from December to January
  • dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut
Rig utilization: [see source]
  • no change
  • 20,000+ feet rigs: 40% (down from 45% last report)
  • shallow well rigs: 20% (also down from 25% last report)
Well completions
  • August: 115 (preliminary)
  • July: 119 (final)
  • June: 149 (final)
  • May: 116 (final)
  • April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
  • March: an astounding 194 (final)
  • February: 42
  • January: 63
  • December: 173 (preliminary)
  • November: 48
Weather
  • one significant precipitation event in the Minot
  • 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
  • no days with temperatures below -10F
Wells waiting to be completed:  
  • At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
  • At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
  • At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
  • At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
  • At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
  • At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
  • At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
  • March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
  • Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
  • Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd
Flaring
  • capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (actual, 80%)
  • capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80%(had been 90%)
  • capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
  • capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
  • capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
  • flaring today: 20%, same as last month
  • finally, the Tioga gas plant was up slightly to 92% of capacity (88% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
  • the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.
Gas capture statistics:  
  • statewide: 80% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
  • FBIR Bakken: 77% (was 81% last month)
  • NOTE: the daily volume of gas flared from July to August was up 9.5 MMCFD; May to June was up just 1.6 MMcfd; previous month the volume of flaring increased 30  MMCFD (previous month increased 23.5 MMCFD (a reversal from last month when flaring had decreased month-over-month)
  • NOTE: previously announced -- ONEOK announced plans to hook up 700 wells in the Bakken (natural gas hook-ups)
Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)

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