I track the "cuts" here.
Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source.
Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.
The August data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-10-13.pdf
Important data points:
- Today, pricing: $35.00
- Bakken price in September: $31.17
- Fracklog: 993 (79 more than at end of July, previous reporting period)
- Completions: 115 (119 in July, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
- Statewide flaring: 20% (no change from previous month)
- 1,186,444 -1,206,966 = - 20,522
- 20,522 / 1,206,966 = 1.7% decrease month-over-month
- August, 2015: 1,186,444
- July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised)
- June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
- May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
- April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
- March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
- February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
- January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
- December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
- delta: see above
- August, 2015: 13,016 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
- July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
- December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
- August, 2014: 11,565
- September, 2015: 154
- August, 2015: 153
- July, 2015: 233
- June, 2015: 192
- May, 2015: 150
- April, 2015: 168
- March, 2015: 190
- February, 2015: 197
- January, 2015: 246
- December, 2014: 251
- November, 2014: 235
- October, 2014: 328
- September, 2014: 261
- August, 2014: 273
- All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
- Today, 2015: $35.00
- September, 2015: $31.17
- August, 2015: $29.52
- July, 2015: $39.41
- June, 2015: 47.73
- May, 2015: $44.70
- April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
- March, 2015: $31.47
- February, 2015: $34.11
- January, 2015: $31.41
- December, 2014: $40.74
- November, 2014: $60.61
- October, 2014: $68.94
- Sept, 2014: $74.85
- August, 2014: $78.46
- Today: 67 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
- August: 74
- July: 73
- June: 78
- May: 83
- April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
- March: 108
- February: 133
- January: 160
- December, 2014: 181
- November, 2014: 188
- October, 2014: 191
- Sept, 2014: 193
- August, 2014: 193
- July, 2014: 192
The number of well completions rose sharply from 119 (final) in July to 115 (preliminary) in August.Drilling rig count:
- rig count increased 1 from July to August; decreased 3 from August to September, and dropped 4 more this month (October)
- dropped 5 from June to July
- dropped 5 from May to June
- dropped 8 from April to May
- dropped 17 from March to April 8
- dropped 25 February to March
- dropped 27 from January to February
- dropped 7 from November to December
- dropped 21 from December to January
- dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut
- no change
- 20,000+ feet rigs: 40% (down from 45% last report)
- shallow well rigs: 20% (also down from 25% last report)
- August: 115 (preliminary)
- July: 119 (final)
- June: 149 (final)
- May: 116 (final)
- April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
- March: an astounding 194 (final)
- February: 42
- January: 63
- December: 173 (preliminary)
- November: 48
- one significant precipitation event in the Minot
- 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
- no days with temperatures below -10F
- At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
- At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
- At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
- At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
- At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
- At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
- At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
- March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
- Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
- Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd
- capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (actual, 80%)
- capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80%(had been 90%)
- capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
- capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
- capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
- flaring today: 20%, same as last month
- finally, the Tioga gas plant was up slightly to 92% of capacity (88% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
- the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.
- statewide: 80% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
- FBIR Bakken: 77% (was 81% last month)
- NOTE: the daily volume of gas flared from July to August was up 9.5 MMCFD; May to June was up just 1.6 MMcfd; previous month the volume of flaring increased 30 MMCFD (previous month increased 23.5 MMCFD (a reversal from last month when flaring had decreased month-over-month)
- NOTE: previously announced -- ONEOK announced plans to hook up 700 wells in the Bakken (natural gas hook-ups)
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