Locator: 48722B.
Newsom: will raise $18 billion to pay for wildfire slush fund; links everywhere, here's one:
- 50% of the $18 billion to come directly from the the state's electric utilities;
- 50% of the $18 billion to come indirectly from the state's electric utilities (via the ratepayers)
- $9 billion / 40 million = $225 / person
- family of four = 4 x $225 = $900 in additional taxes, or about $75 / month from ratepayers
- if utilities pass through their share, that would work out to about $150 / month on top of whatever they are already paying
- all this needs to be fact-checked; there may be other ways to do the math.
Note: this is not an investment site. See disclaimer at bottom of the page.
The book page: Walter Murch, cinematic history: Suddenly Something Clicked, c. 2025.
- Chapter 7 — Saccadic Cinema
- incredibly interesting discussion of what, why, and how our eyes perceive motion;
- some time spent, also, on sound and hearing
- Chapter 8 — Tetris I — Timing and Dosing in Editing The Conversation
- the chapter for which I’ve been waiting
Trump’s tariffs:
- today: copper
- absolutely fascinating
- a lot of unknowns but one known, possibly two knowns:
- one known: railroads are going to be the big winner under Trump
- one possibly known: coal, natural gas, and oil may do very, very well
- natural gas should;
- oil not so sure;
- coal hard to say
Ford:
multiple sources; done on the fly; everything needs to be fact-checked --
- earnings out today:
- trading at $10, exactly what it was trading for in 1985, forty years ago
- but a great trading stock; has been as low as $1.87 (2009)
- only major auto manufacturer that still breaks out its major divisions, e.g., ICE vs EV
- headlines and the company blaming problems on tariffs
- Ford took $800 million tariff hit but still beat Wall Street expectations
- numbers:
- EPS: 37 cents, down 10 cents from last year;
- Adjusted earnings: $2.1 billion; included the $800 million noted above
- Revenue: $50.2 billion; up 5% from last year (inflation?)
- Net loss: $36 million
- partly due to cancellation of a electric vehicle program
- Wall Street had estimated EPS of 33 cents; and sales of $45.8 billion
- guidance:
- full year guidance provided once again after being pulled in May, 2025
- guidance, operating profit: 2024: $10.2 billion (actual)
- at start of 2025, estimate: $7 - $8.5 billion ($8 billion)
- now, mid-2025, estimate: $6.5 to $7.5 billion ($7 billion)
- tariff headwinds raised from $1.5 billion to $2 billion
- Ford Model e: A loss of $1.3 billion; a $179 million increase in loss compared other same period last year
- loss per EV: $22,000 per car; last year, $44,000 per car.
- reasons for loss:
- tariffs
- EV investments
- addition of a new batter plant
- second quarter sales reported earlier
- best quarterly sales numbers in six years (if this was front-loaded by consumers in anticipation of of tariffs, this is not necessarily good news)
- sales rose 14.2%: uptick in truck, hybrid and SUV sales
- however, its EV lineup disappointed, losing 31.4% — not stated whether this is q/q or y/y
- recalls continue to be an issue for the company who used to run on “Quality if Job #1”
- Barron’s: Ford earnings beat estimates, but the quarter was still a mess.
NVDA: rises; Morgan Stanley makes the case for $200.
MSFT: surges on impressive earnings; on track to join Nvidia in the $4 trillion club; in fact, in after hours trading, MSFT’s market cap did hit $4 trillion. Just last week the experts on CNBC said MSFT was "frothy," "too expensive." Thanks, guys.
AAPL: reports tomorrow. After the close.
Fed and rate cuts, tea leaves: zero chance that Pow will announce any cut in the Fed rate this year.
IRS: ends DirectFile, free-filing program.
- killed in the one big beautiful bill;
- most GOP politicos feel the program is government overreach.
- H&R Block, and others must have a powerful lobby.
********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.23 — whoo-hoo! Breaks through $70. CVX drops 2% during normal hours and another 0.7% after hours — altogether, down over 4% today; down $4.48 for the day.
Active rigs: 31.
Five new permits, #42166 - #42170, inclusive:
- Operators: Formentera Operations (3); Slawson (2):
- Fields: Foothills (Burke); Big Bend (Mountrail) |
- Comments:
Eight permits renewed: XTO (7): Formentera Operations:
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- Longer version here.
