Wednesday, July 30, 2025

GDP Surges -- Hump Day -- Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Locator: 48719B.

Starting to sink in: as much coverage as Stephen Colbert got, as big as his audience was, wouldn't you think he was making money for CBS: I assumed he was a huge asset for CBS.

  • in fact, he was costing the company $40 million / year
    • his own salary: $15 million
    • not a good face for CBS; did not grow his own audience, much less attract viewers to CBS.
    • employed 200 staff -- yes, 200 -- to write jokes about politics
  • Johnny Carson:
    • generated an estimated $50 million in annual revenue for NBC
    • in today's dollars: $233 million
      • again, vs a $40 million loss being generated by Colbert
    • represented a significant portion of NBC's overall earnings
    • some analysts estimated it to be around 17% of the network's profits.

Strong GDP report: a stronger than expected reading, link here.

  • despite 5% decrease in government spending
  • 3% growth in 2Q25; expected: 2.3%
  • why any need to cut rates?
  • yet to be felt: the one big beautiful bill
  • core inflation: 2.1%

Pemex: exported almost 40% less crude oil y/y; lowest level in decades, link here.

  • processing at local refineries and fuel production increased significantly
  • Pemex even reported a slight profit

Yesterday, look at that glow!


Anthropic
: in talks to raise upwards of $5 billion in new funding; Beth;

  • would value the company at $170 billion,
  • up nearly $110 billion from its prior $60 billion valuation

Movie clip from 1895: yes, 1895. Link here. Uploaded September 19, 2024, by Walter Murch.

Energy = strength. Years ago, on the blog, energy generation (use) = indication of strength. If so, UK in a heap of trouble; link here.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.53.

New wells:

  • Thursday, July 31, 2025: 48 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 478 for the year, 
    • 40541, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-24-25H 2,
    • 40182, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-23-26H 5,
    • 40180, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-23-36H 3,
  • Wednesday, July 30, 2025: 45 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 475 for the year,
    • 41348, conf, CLR, Carlton 2-7H,
    • 41115, conf, Murfin Drilling, Steffan 1-24H,
    • 41114, conf, Murfin Drilling, Steffan 1-25H,
    • 41105, conf, Murfin Drilling, Steffan 1-30H,

RBN Energy: extensive refining, exports make Houston a prime spot for Permian crude.

Crude oil producers in the prolific Permian Basin have plenty of options to move their barrels, especially since pipeline capacity currently exceeds production, but not every route out of the basin is equal. One of the hottest destinations for Permian crude is Houston, which boasts an attractive mix of refining and export demand. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the pipelines that transport Permian crude to Houston, discuss why it’s such a vital spot, and preview our latest Drill Down Report

The Permian produces about 6.6 MMb/d of crude oil today, most of it destined for the U.S. Gulf Coast. The Houston and Corpus Christi areas are in a tight race for those barrels, competing head-to-head to attract the largest flows. Corpus Christi surpassed Houston as the top dog in Q1 2025, with Permian-to-Corpus flows averaging 2.5 MMb/d compared to Houston’s 2.4 MMb/d, according to RBN’s Crude Oil Permian Weekly report. (In 2024, Houston outpaced Corpus for half of the months.) Combined, they account for about three-quarters of Permian output.

Permian barrels also reach the Cushing, OK, storage hub as well as the Louisiana and Nederland, TX, markets. Further, a smaller portion is refined locally in West Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma. Key refineries at the heart of the region include Marathon Petroleum’s El Paso, TX, refinery (133 Mb/d); HF Sinclair’s Navajo refinery (100 Mb/d) in Artesia, NM; and Delek US’s Big Spring, TX, refinery (73 Mb/d). Phillips 66’s Borger, TX, refinery (149 Mb/d) and Valero Energy’s Ardmore, OK, refinery (90 Mb/d) also consume Permian barrels.

Houston is considered an excellent option for Permian crude, with its network of pipelines connecting the basin to refineries, storage facilities and export terminals — thereby providing a high degree of market optionality. Unlike Corpus Christi, which has a few refineries but is predominantly an export market, Houston has a more balanced split between refineries and exports (more on this below). Houston is a large refining center, with about 2.35 MMb/d of crude processing capacity, and year-to-date exports from Houston-area terminals, according to our Crude Voyager Report, have averaged 1.1 MMb/d.

Permian-to-Houston Crude Oil Pipelines

Figure 1. Permian-to-Houston Crude Oil Pipelines. Source: RBN