Locator: 48703NVIDIA.
Locator: 48668NVIDIA.
Locator: 46070NVIDIA.
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
- Longer version here.
May 28, 2025, 4:02 p.m. CT: and now that this is over, I'm done with CNBC and following the market for another three months when AAPL and NVDA report again. Good luck to all. After hours,
- the big four after Nvidia's earnings:
- NVDA: $142.47, up $7.66, up 5.68%;
- ORCL: $166.50, up $2.65, up 1.62%;
- AVGO: $247.16, up $7.79; up 3.25%;
- AMD: $114.89, up $2.03; up 1.75%;
- others;
- ARM: $139.22, up $3.68; up 2.72%
- TSM: $200.40, up $.26; up 2.17%
- GEV: $499.00 -- all-time high; up $13.99; up 2.88%;
- MU: $98.00; up $1.87; up 1.94% (was slightly down during the day)
- AMD up a bit
- AAPL: flat -- not a good sign for AAPL
And here they are, earnings:
- ticker up $2.00 after hours and after earnings have apparently been released; now up over $3.00 / share -- is that good news? Maybe.
- seems to have settled: up 3.5% after earnings release.
- later, after "everyone" has had chance to see the numbers and heard Jensen's comments, NVID is up over $8 / share; up about 6%;
- CNBC :
- beat on top and bottom line
- 96 cents vs 93 cents EPS
- $44.06 billion vs $43.31 billion
- $4.5 billion charge vs $5.0 billion charge
- $39.1 billion from data center services revenue; slightly ight; vs 39.22 billion estimate -- the crawler on CNBC is wrong (it will probably be corrected).
- "ticker is now popping." But not by much. Up over 4% after hours.
- Investopedia. Link here.
- Business Insider. Link here.
FIRST QUARTER RESULTS
Revenue $44.06 billion, +69% y/y, estimate $43.29 billion
- Data center revenue $39.1 billion, +73% y/y, estimate $39.22
billion
- Automotive revenue $567 million, +72% y/y, estimate $579.4
million
- Adjusted gross margin 61% vs. 78.9% y/y, estimate 71%
-R&D expenses $3.99 billion, +47% y/y, estimate $4.07 billion
- Adjusted operating expenses $3.58 billion, +43% y/y, estimate
$3.63 billion
- Adjusted operating income $23.28 billion, +29% y/y, estimate
$27.15 billion
- Adjusted EPS 81c, estimate 93c
- Free cash flow $26.14 billion, +75% y/y
Comments
Bad:
- most worrisome: margins, big miss, and significantly lower than previous
- operating income missed estimate but still up 29% y/y
Nice:
- operating expenses, though significantly higher than y/y, came in lower than estimate
Analysts:
- able to keep up with supply chain; meeting buyers' demands.
- remember: Nvidia has been locked out of China and yet they made their numbers.
Will be interesting to see the App Economy graphic.
Update
May 28, 2025: Beth says Nvidia will generate $1 trillion in cumulative revenue through fiscal 2029.
May 28, 2025: First time in months that I've tuned into CNBC. Anticipating Nvidia earnings today.
- Observations:
- analysts are over-thinking this; LOL;
- today is sort of like the Stanley Cup of trading; NBA championships of trading; nothing more, nothing less;
- wow, talk about endless talking about nothing that matters;
May 28, 2025: the Trump administration orders US companies that offer software used to design semiconductors to stop selling their services to Chinese groups.
We'll start seeing stories everywhere. The big question is whether these announcements are simply things that Trump has come up with or if there is some discussion among his inner group? If the former, Trump will run circles around bureaucracies and the judicial system. Again, can the president simply issue edicts like this? It will take days / weeks / months / years for the legislative and the judicial branches of the government to consider these issues.
May 28, 2025: Palantir goes deeper into the US bureaucracy -- has now teamed up with Fannie Mae to fight mortgage fraud.
May 27, 2025: earnings out tomorrow, Wednesday, May 28, 2025, after market closes.
May 24, 2025: link here.
May 24, 2025: analysts' expectations, Investopedia.
Analysts on average expect Nvidia to report:
- quarterly revenue of $43.38 billion, 66% higher year-over-year; and,
- adjusted net income of $21.29 billion, or 87 cents per share, up from $15.24 billion, or 61 cents per share, a year earlier.
Original Post
****************************************
Previously Posted
Locator: 48478NVDA.
All about tech, right now.
Most important: AAPL, NVID, CRM.
Apple (AAPL) news here. (pending)
Over on twitter: Evan, Giovanni Staunovo, and EconomyApp.
First two charts, Nvidia, link here:
- 2Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
- largest revenue center, "Data Center": $26.3 billion; grew 16% q/q
- revenue: $30.08 billion; grew 15% q/q
- gross profit: $22.6 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 75% margin;
- operating profit: $18.6billion; grew 3pp q/q; 62% margin;
- net profit: $16.6 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 55% margin;
From yesterday:
- 1Q25: look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
- largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
- revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q
- gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
- operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
- net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin;
Salesforce, link here:
- 2Q25: compare CRM margins below with NVDA margins above (spoiler alert: there's simply no comparison) and other data points, from left to right:
- subscription and support: $8.8 billion; grew 9% y/y;
- five revenue centers: each $1 billion to $2 billion; each grew about 10% y/y;
- revenue: $9.3 billion; grew 8% q/q
- gross profit: $7.2 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 77% margin;
- operating profit: $1.88 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 19% margin;
- net profit: $1.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 15% margin;
Now, conventional comparison, CRM vs NVDA:
CRM, p/e = 46.54
NVDA, forward p/e = 40; current p/e = 74:
NVDA vs CRM:
Summary of Nvidia's Earnings Call
Positives: - Record Revenue Growth: NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $30 billion for Q2, a 15% sequential increase and a remarkable 122% year-on-year growth, significantly surpassing the expected $28 billion. - Strong Data Center Performance: Data Center revenue reached $26.3 billion, up 16% sequentially and 154% year-on-year, driven by robust demand for NVIDIA's Hopper architecture and networking platforms, particularly in generative AI applications. - Innovative Product Pipeline: The anticipation for the upcoming Blackwell platform is high, with expectations of several billion dollars in revenue from Blackwell in Q4. The platform promises significant improvements in performance and efficiency. - Diverse Customer Base: NVIDIA's customer base is expanding, with strong demand from cloud service providers, consumer internet companies, and enterprises across various sectors, including healthcare and automotive. - Growing Software Revenue: NVIDIA's AI Enterprise platform is gaining traction, with expectations to approach a $2 billion annual run rate by year-end, indicating strong growth in software and services.
Negatives: - Gross Margin Pressure: Gross margins decreased slightly due to a higher mix of new products and inventory provisions for low-yielding Blackwell materials, with expectations of continued pressure as new products ramp up. - Competitive Market in China: While Data Center revenue in China grew, the market remains competitive, and NVIDIA faces challenges due to export controls affecting its operations in the region. - Increased Operating Expenses: Operating expenses are expected to grow in the mid- to upper 40% range as NVIDIA invests in developing next-generation products, which may impact profitability in the short term. - Transition Challenges: The shift from Hopper to Blackwell may present challenges in terms of customer readiness and integration, particularly with the adoption of liquid cooling technologies.
Overall: NVIDIA's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and growth prospects driven by innovation in AI and accelerated computing, while also acknowledging challenges related to margins and competitive pressures.
***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
*******************************
Nvidia's 2Q Revenue and Net Income For Every 2Q Since Going Public
The link has revenue and income data going all the way back to 1999. I will post only income data for past few years:
Net income:
