Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- February 14, 2024

Locator: 46818B.

Birthdays: quick! How old is Taylor? How old is Travis? Hint, if you get one answer correct, you will get both answers correct, assuming you get the first answer correct. And then quit.

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Lana Del Rey

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Now, Back To The Good Stuff

Personal investing: wow, wow, wow, I took advantage of that huge pullback in the market yesterday. Whoo-hoo! 

Market: 

• this market is so incredible (in a good way)!
• CPI: 0.3% vs analysts hope of 0.2% -- and that resulted in huge sell-off -- a 0.1% tick -- and that tick was reality vs hope. LOL. But I'll take it -- great buying opportunity.
  
• all of the CPI can be explained away with shelter
• most of shelter is the price of homes / mortgages (not rent)
• what's driving high mortgage rates? LOL. If you can't answer that question, there's no hope
• bottom line: the Fed right now, is its own worst enemy and this is going to make it worse
• despite war in Gaza; US bombing / striking Iranian targets; Red Sea/Suez closed and oil holding below historic highs-- if oil holds, one less (and it's a huge one) inflationary risk
• did you all see the incredible build in US oil? 12 million bbls; normally fluctuates around a +/- 1 million bbls
• did you see refiners' operable capacity: 80%. Holy mackerel, 80%.
• are we at winter / spring / summer transition for winter-to-summer blend already
• here in Texas, the flocks of geese flying north is remarkable -- yeah, summer is here
  
• we're done with wage increases for the year
  
• if the Fed cuts rates before the election, one can already see the conspiracy talk
• cognitive dissonance
• MAGA investors want the Fed to cut rates
• MAGA investors don't want the Fed to cut rates 'cause it will give the election to Kamala Harris
• as for me, for the first time in a long time, I'm at peace with myself, comfortable in my own skin
• by the way, look how ICE plans to make up the budget deficit now that the MAGA politicos killed the southern border bill -- and their plan is fiscally right, morally right, and right for the country

Nvidia (NVDA): 

• at 5:00 p.m. yesterday, NVDA was up $6 from the day before at 5:00 p.m.
• today, NVDA is up another $5 / share

ASML: up $14 today.

So much for that tech sell-off.

AAPL: is now below $185 today, its traditional support level. 

• will have huge announcements for new products in March
• high on my list? The 15-inch M3 MacBook Air
• right now, I'm using my 13-inch M1 MacBook Air while letting my workhorse, and Intel-based 13-inch MacBook charge
• the M1 is so incredibly fast, amazing -- I can only imagine what the M3 will do
• eager to see the pricing
  

Heinz: on another note -- ouch. Down 6% today.  

Heinz CEO was a bit disingenuous on CNBC today: saying his company's inflation costs were 3.4% and and he was holding his inflation prices to 1%, and the "last thing he would do would pass inflation costs on to consumers" or something to that effect.

In fact, multiple sources are reporting that food inflation for 2023 was 1.3% for "food at home" and as far as I'm concerned that's the important number for me. "Food at home." And careful shopping can significantly bring that figure down.

By the way, next time you wash your dishes, note how much ketchup is washed down the sink.

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Weekly EIA Petroleum Report

Weekly, link here.

• US crude oil in storage: 2% below 5-year average
• US crude oil inventories: increased by a whopping 12 million bbls
• imports: averaging 7% less than last year
• refiners: dropping even more -- now down to 80%
• distillates: 7% below five-year average
• diesel is going to be the big story this summer
  gasoline inventories a wash: total motor gasoline, down; finished gasoline up
• jet fuel supplied: up 1.5% y/y