Earlier, I posted:
Reserves: I don't "believe" any of these numbers because I can't accept data for two or three countries, and I assume if those two or three are wrong, the rest are wrong. Link here. If nothing else, Libya is a non-factor in light of today's geo-political events:
So, what are my thoughts on the geo-political events (i.e., Putin's War and US sanctions on Russia)?
- it goes without saying, so I will say it -- LOL -- that crude oil / natural gas trading routes have changed, perhaps for decades:
- Russia loses Europe and turns east toward India, China
- transportation costs and new infrastructure; supertankers instead of pipelines
- Qatar and US compete for Europe
- Qatar: limited upside
- US: almost unlimited upside
- supply / demand
- even without Putin's War / US sanctions, meeting energy demands is now the big challenge, not "demand destruction"
- supply -- particularly crude oil and diesel -- significantly constrained
- big change: India
- almost as big: China
- energy transition is dead
- short term: driven by liquidity crisis; recession; investor demand for dividends / companies that deliver profits
- OPEC: spare capacity doesn't exist; OPEC continues to miss allowed increased quotas
- analysts surprised that Russia continues to maintain crude oil production / exports / sales
- increased transportation costs
- selling at reduced prices
- western oil service companies exiting Russia
- parts to maintain Russian oil sector become more difficult to obtain
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