Daily Note -- March 8, 2020

First Things First

Perhaps someone can enlighten me. How can we get the number of new cases of Covid-19 each day as well as the number of new deaths from around the world, from Iran and Latvia to Russia and the US, and yet we still do not have final numbers from the California Democrat primary race? From the AP yesterday, March 7, 2020:

Many of the delegates are being withheld because it is unclear whether former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg will finish above the 15% threshold in California, which would score him a significant number of statewide delegates. Regardless of whether Bloomberg reaches the threshold, Sanders can’t catch Biden because many of the remaining delegates would then go to Biden.

US Politics

At this particular on-line news source, which I cannot link, there are always five top stories. One is a banner headline and often relates to politics at the national or presidential level. The next four are "quarter-panel" banner headlines. Three of the four quarter-panel stories often concern regional politics. The fourth quarter-panel banner story (the fifth of the five headline stories) is almost always celebrity sensationalism of some sort and/or clickbait. 

Today, it was interesting to note that two of the four quarter-panel banner stories both came out of Minnesota:

• it appears that, if she didn't blow it by announcing, Klobuchar is Biden's pick for his VP running mate; and,
• Minnesota gun permits are at a record high

From wiki, 2016:

Minnesota was won with a plurality by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and a 1.5% margin, the eleventh consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972.

This was the closest presidential election in Minnesota since 1984, when Walter Mondale carried the state by a 0.2% margin and it was the only state not carried by Ronald Reagan.

However, the state voted more Republican than the national average for the first time since 1952.

Minnesota had the highest voter turnout in the nation with approximately 75 percent of the state's eligible voters participating in the general election.

Klobuchar is an enlightened choice. Absolutely enlightened.

• Klobuchar comes across as brilliant regardless of gender, race, party, 
• she can carry the entire midwest, northern tier that Hillary was unable to carry
• she can assure Minnesota stays with Biden; any other VP choice? Minnesota (and the entire midwest) remains in play; Klobuchar will carry Minnesota;
• she proved herself in the debates; she will "win" in debates against Pence if she "punches above her weight" -- which I'm sure she will
• those who are concerned about Biden's state of mind, will argue that his VP will be more than ready to take over; Klobuchar on the ticket sort of negates all those negative concerns about Biden's mind

Geo-Politics: Energy

OPEC+ in chaos. Saudi Arabia will recommend that all quotas be removed; open the spigots; says it could raise its own production to 12 million bopd. Monday's WTI action -- and we'll see it tonight -- could be severe. I prefer other sources for data but I'm not following much market news, so I will link ZeroHedge, sent to me by a reader.

Memo to China: build more storage tanks. Oil will never be this cheap again.

Interestingly enough, some are suggesting the refinery demand for oil will be off the charts in April as coronavirus comes to an end.

Geo-Politics: Greece

The EU is pouring millions of euros into Greece to act as border "shield" against an escalting migrant crisis.

Geo-Politics: Turkey

Both a war (with Syria) and a refugee crisis looming. Turkey is threatening to make the refugee problem a EU problem. Link here.

Coronavirus

Commentary: what is the more important data point? On a daily basis:

• deaths?
• hospitalizations?
• number of new cases?

I would argue for the US it's hospitalizations.

We immediately need to "rule out" the number of new cases as the most important data point at this time (in three months, it might be relevant). But the number of new cases is a huge function of a) criteria used for diagnosis (the "China syndrome"); and, b) the availability of test kits. So, throw "number of new cases" out. Note: I'm not saying the number of new cases is not important; I'm arguing that of the three data points, it's the least important.

Public officials, the CDC, mainstream media will focus on the number of daily deaths, but without some context, the number is almost meaningless. The fatality rate in percentages would be a better indicator, but when Brian Williams divided 500 million by 330 million and gets 100 million, even thinking about percentages is a non-starter for journalists.

So, we get to new hospitalizations on a daily basis. Interestingly, that's the one data point that is not provided.

Definition of epidemic: has Italy declared coronavirus an epidemic? For seasonal flu, the CDC states:

An increase of 1.645 standard deviations above the seasonal baseline of P&I deaths is considered the “epidemic threshold,” i.e., the point at which the observed proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia or influenza was significantly higher than would be expected at that time of the year in the absence of substantial influenza-related mortality.

Currently, the percentage of deaths in the US attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.9%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%.

Growth factor (from yesterday, March 7, 2020). With Italy's numbers today, one would expect the growth factor to turn higher (unfortunately):

By country (last updated, 1:04 p.m. CT, March 8, 2020):

• Italy out of control. Italy reports a staggering 1,492 new cases. Compare with China: 52 new cases. Italy is now reporting more new deaths (133) than China is reporting new cases (52). The country is finally taking draconian action. Northern provinces are finally quarantined. The quarantine will hit Italy's industrial base very, very hard. In addition, nationwide, all high-density events have been shut down/closed, including all museums, all sports stadiums (apparently with some exceptions); etc. Skiing is done for the season.
• Germany: starting to see numbers that Italy had early on; very, very scary, as panic sets in. Germany reported 218 new cases "today"; total stands at 1,018; deaths from coronavirus in Germany is ... drum roll ... zero. Coronavirus fatality rate in Germany ... let me do the math ... 0 / 1,018 = 0%.
• China: only 52 new cases "today'; 28 new deaths;
• Iran: still out of control, but perhaps not as bad as Italy; 743 new cases; 49 new deaths; fatality rate drops to less than 3%;
• South Korea: slowly turning it around; 272 new cases; two new deaths; was Bill Maher correct? People do die of something every day; death is part of life, to coin a phrase; 50 / 7,313 = 0.7% fatality rate;
• US: twenty-nine new cases "today," so far; no new deaths; 29 / 464 = 6.25% 
• Other countries reporting new deaths today:
• Spain: 7
• Japan: 1
• Netherlands: 2
• Switzerland: 1
• Hong Kong: 1
• Iraq: 2
• Egypt: 1

Coronavirus and the US:

• I did not read the story, but I saw the headline. In this case, I agree with the governor of Washington state in his "spat" with President Trump. It's better to take draconian steps early and then back off as necessary. See third bullet below.
• I hope Monday morning quarterbacking doesn't "prove" Trump made the wrong decision on Italy. Trump was correct (probably more luck than anything) banning international flights from China to the US, which he did early on. Everything suggests international flights to the US originating in Italy need to be curtailed. 
• President Trump could help the Washington state governor out immensely by sending VP Pence to the state. They might want to stop border crossings from Canada (source of Chinese entries) and curtail flights into Seattle from the east or west coasts. Perhaps setting a threshold of new cases when to enact draconian measures would be appropriate.

Seasonal Flu

US:

• new cases yesterday; 125,000 (one day, US, new cases)
• seasonal flu-related deaths yesterday: 125 (one day, US, new deaths)