Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected; The Trump Rally Extends; The Energy And Market Page, T+257 -- October 5, 2017

The market, another trifecta: S&P 500; NASDAQ; and, Dow 30 all closed at record highs. Quick: name the first offering billed by Netflix as exclusive content. Answer: Lilyammer. From wiki: "Lilyhammer was promoted as "the first time Netflix offered exclusive content." We have the series on DVD; love the premise; when it's good, it's very, very good. When it's bad ... well, not so good. I don't have much interest in re-watching it, though I still watch Columbo over and over.

The market:

• portfolio in autumn, 2015: $100,000
• portfolio in autumn, 2017: $130,000
• ten-percent correction between now and the end of 2017: $117,000
• okay
• what else, with a ten-percent correction?
• everything goes on sale; there will be some incredible opportunities -- starting with Warren Buffett's suggestions
• "accidental" high yields will "temper" the correction

Coal: so many story lines in this story -- no time to go into them now. But for the archives from The Bismarck Tribune:

On Friday, the Department of Energy issued a proposal to the Federal Regulatory Energy Commission, suggesting that FERC adopt a rule that pays baseload power plants for having 90 days’ worth of fuel on-site, which DOE says makes them more reliable and necessary to power production when renewables aren’t available.

“Competition from other power sources has flipped energy markets on their head,” said Bohrer during the organization’s fall industry group meeting in Bismarck on Wednesday.

In North Dakota, coal competes mostly with wind energy. Because mines in the state are located at the mouths of power plants, the coal power generated here is more comparably priced to the natural gas plants that are making it hard for coal plants in other parts of the country to compete.

But coal-fired plants can provide a constant source of power. Wind power is only available when the wind blows. Because of this, the coal industry would like to see that reliability reflected in the value of the power they supply.

North Dakota: coal competes mostly with wind; and, yet, before it's all over, there is going to be such a glut of natural gas in North Dakota. Wind, coal, natural gas. We need to have some folks from Minnesota invest in a solar farm west of Fargo. That would pretty much cover all bases -- along with biomass from cow dung, cornstalks, and cattails. Don't forget hydroelectricity from Garrison Dam. 

The market: NYSE, new highs, 219 236 243, up from 194 earlier; including Manitowoc, recommended by Karen (?) during Fast Money yester-afternoon.

Jobless claims:

• forecast: 265,000
• actual: 260,000
• from previous report: an astounding decrease of 12,000

Comments from Reuters:

• the continued impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the data made it difficult to get a clear picture of the labor market (sure, why not? Hate to give any credit to Trump, now almost a year since his election; under Obama the bad jobs reports were said to be due to a) cold weather during the winter; b) hot weather during the summer; and, c) Easter falling earlier/later than the year before
• claims shot up from a low of 236,000 in late August, hitting 298,000 at the start of September. As a result, Harvey and Irma are expected to cut into job growth in September (we'll see)
• government forecast for tomorrow's employment report: nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 90,000 jobs last month after rising by 156,000 in August

Elsewhere, Jim Cramer was already "blowing off" whatever the number is tomorrow.

The good news: government figures could never be trusted; under the Obama administration they admitted they massaged the numbers (previously reported; well documented); under the Trump administration, the mainstream media will find ways to make good news sound "bad" and bad news to sound even "badder."

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The Book Page

The Hiltons: The True Story of an American Dynasty

J. Randy Taraborrelli

c. 2014

Great, great story. Easy reading. Not great literature but a great story. Reads a bit like People magazine, or at least how I imagine People magazine would read.

Quick, without looking (answers posted here):

1a. Who "discovered" Conrad Hilton's most famous granddaughter? 1b. Before she was discovered, what did she want to be when she "grew up"?
2. Whom was Barron named after? Yes, that Barron.
3. Who was Conrad Hilton's second wife?
4. The Melba was one of Conrad Hilton's very first hotels; in what city was it located?
5. What hotel was the first hotel that Conrad Hilton built from the ground up?
6. Where did Conrad Hilton serve in WWI? 6b. In what capacity? 6c. In what service and at what rank?
7a. In what country was Conrad Hilton's dad born? 7b. What was his Dad's middle name? 7c. In what month was Conrad Hilton's father born? 7d. In what state was Conrad Hilton born? (this is a trick question)
8. Hilton Conrad's first child was a son, Conrad Nicholson, Jr. Whom did "Nicky" marry?
9. What major airline bought Hilton International in 1967?
10. What was the first company registered with the New York Stock Exchange to operate gambling facilities (in Nevada).

Bonus essay: what was Conrad Hilton's fatal flaw? (Perhaps he had two; either answer will earn you ten bonus points).