$52.20→ | 9/26/2017 | 09/26/2016 | 09/26/2015 | 09/26/2014 | 09/26/2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Active Rigs | 58 | 34 | 71 | 190 | 184 |
RBN Energy: recent developments in Russia crude and refined product exports.
Snagged: Bass Pro completes $4 billion acquisition of Cabela's.
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Prepare For Oil Shortage -- Citigroup
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Thesis:
- five countries in the OPEC group may be already pumping at maximum capacity: Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq
- rather than a surge in output, there's "a risk of a market squeeze" emerging as early as 2018
My comment: any shortfall less than 3 million bopd will easily be met by US. I lean with Boston Energy, see below.
Oil Price Outlook Unchanged -- Boston Energy
Link: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=151853&utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2017-09-26&utm_content=&utm_campaign=feature_2.
Overall:
- outlook for oil prices has not changed
- oil prices likely to remain flat well into 2018
- surplus oil inventories ahve declined significantly but a large surplus to the five-eyar average will likely remain for the rest of the year
- a significant increase in inventories is even likely in 2018 with the seasonal decline in global demand
- but in 2020 and beyond, the risk of an oil shortage remains high
- forecast:
- near $50/bbl: into 2018
- average bout $51 in 2018 (vs average $50 in 2017)
- Brent/WTI spread:
- through August, $2.01
- spread dramatically in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey
- inventory rebalancing is underway, but at a much slower pace than originally anticipated
- OPEC had forecast an increase in oil prices to $60-65/bbl with re-balancing
- see link, lots of data
- US production remains robust; will meet all US demand well into 2018
- US producers have adjusted their 2017 capital budgets to a $51/bbl WTI oil price but left their 2017 production guidance intact
- increased drilling efficiencies, resulting in better breakeven prices:
- Permian Delaware and Midland sub basins: $33/bbl
- Williston Basin: $33/bbl
- Eagle Ford: $34/bbl
- then this:
- But in the long run, Pioneer Resources, a leading producer in the Midland basin, said in a recent presentation “$50 oil isn’t going to get it done” because it doesn’t generate enough cash flow and the industry has too much debt. “U.S. production may grow for 2-3 years and a few independents may grow, but we are in a $60 long term price environment.”
- see link
- see link
- Iraq is the biggest cheater, consistently exceeding its limits
- 4.45 million bopd vs quota of 4.35 million bopd
- plans to increase production to 5.0 million bopd
- see link
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