Crude oil: reserves build by 3 million bbls of oil. WTI down below $53.
- actual inventories: up 2.840 million bbls
- forecast: 2.815 million bbls
- previous: 2.347 million bbls
- So, what does this really mean?
- crude oil inventories in the US are in the area of 485 million bbls (does not include SPR)
- SPR: runs in the area of 700 million bbls
- total inventories (with SPR): runs in the area of 1,200 million bbls
- forecast 2.815 million
- actual: 2.840 million
- delta: 0.025 million
- 0.025 million delta / 1,200 million = a lot of zeros to the right of the decimal point
- my math was wrong;
- I misunderstand the importance of this
Rate Of Demand To Grow Faster Than Rate Of Production (Crude Oil) Through 2018
From the EIA today:
EIA estimates that crude oil and other liquids inventories grew by 2.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by an increase in production and a significant, but seasonal, drop in consumption.
Global production and consumption are both projected to increase through 2018, but consumption is expected to increase at a faster rate than production. As a result, global balances are expected to tighten…
Global production is expected to have increased by 1.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2016, with OPEC accounting for 0.9 million b/d, or 55%, of this increase.
EIA estimates that total global production averaged 96.4 million b/d in 2016.
Global production is expected to increase to 97.5 million b/d in 2017 to 98.9 million b/d in 2018.”---EIA
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